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The global economy expanded for a twentieth straight month in February, according to the JPMorgan Global PMI™ with the rate of expansion accelerating from January's 18-month low as the COVID-19 Omicron wave showed signs of easing. Global GDP growth in Q1 2022 so far looks slowe...
Worldwide manufacturing growth picked up in February after being subdued to a 1.5-year low in January due to the Omicron wave. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose from a 15-month low of 53.2 in January to 53.6 in February in a sign that the global economy continued to show enco...
Although I am working with obviously incomplete and biased information, I view the possibility of the cessation of hostilities within a few weeks to be unlikely. The sanctions, war disruptions, and a Western private sector that is cutting ties to Russia means that we are facing an ext...
When it comes to the Ukraine invasion and its impact on markets, what are the views of asset managers around the world? In discussions with managers, it appears that most thought that a full invasion was highly unlikely. While the base forecasts for many managers may not have chan...
The current environment looks to be a realignment of geopolitical expectations across Europe. The rapid and coordinated efforts of Western nations demonstrate this realignment. The monetary path of central banks is changing and an important dynamic to monitor. For further de...
The significant volatility seen in the stock market recently from the Russian war/invasion of Ukraine is further evidence of how this fear dynamic can create short-term panics. Russia is more than a rounding error because the country accounts for about 11% of global energy production....
The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose from a 15-month low of 53.2 in January to 53.6 in February. The relative weakness of February's global output growth by historical standards contrasted with a more robust expansion of order books recorded during the month. The reduction i...
Financial markets are reacting as expected to the heightened uncertainty. In the first days of the invasion, global equities plunged while safe-haven assets rallied. In short, while we have anticipated a broader, cyclical turn against the dollar could be underway, this shift in favor ...
The volatility surrounding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to evolve. The absolute worst-case scenario - from both a human and economic cost perspective - would be that the fighting extends past the Ukrainian border. There will be continued economic and political unc...
Events have moved quickly since our update on February 22. It’s unclear whether this is the shock and awe phase of a limited incursion or the beginning of a full-scale invasion that seeks regime change in Kyiv. USD/RUB touched 90 overnight before fading back to the mid-80s ...
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