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"Bond markets are sending one big global recession warning" You have to be kidding me! This headline from CNBC greeted me this morning and appears to give us a significant reason for the Dow Jones, S&P and Nasdaq indices suffering a sharp decline today. It is just one more instance o...
David Beckworth linked to this tweet by Greg Ip: 1/ Random thought: maybe we could defeat lowflation by returning to the gold standard - at $3,000 per ounce. There are some follow-up tweets. In the late 1990s, I wrote a long paper discussing FDR's gold buying program, which was an atte...
By Pater Tenebrarum Anti-Vigilantes We dimly remember when Japanese government debt traded at a negative yield to maturity for the very first time. This happened at some point in the late 1990s or early 2000s in secondary market trading (it was probably a shorter maturity than the 10-y...
July saw several double-digit declines in 10-year government bond yields, amid a flurry of political developments and the lead up to monetary policy decisions. In Southern Europe, Italy's 10-year mid-yield plunged by nearly 54 basis points to end the month at 1.54%. The decline coincided wit...
Yield curves have gone mad. Negative yields are everywhere, from AAA-rated government bonds to corporate junk . Most developed countries have inverted yield curves, and a fair few developing countries do too: (chart from worldgovernmentbonds.com) Negative yields and widespread yield c...
By Krishna Memani , Vice Chairman of Investments As the Fed unwinds previous rate hikes, don’t count on the dollar to move much I continue to believe international equities and fixed income may offer good value and diversification. However, I find it somewhat disconcertin...
By Daniel Poppe For the month of June, the ETF Deathwatch increased in size. Twenty-nine exchange-traded products ("ETPs") were added to the list, and 17 funds were removed, making June a busier month in terms of additions. Of the removals, six were removed due to increased health and 11 w...
There are growing signs that the global economic slowdown is for real. As was the case in 1929, the combination of the peak of the credit cycle coupled with trade protectionism in the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act are similar conditions to those of today and potentially pose a serious economic chall...
By Barkley Rosser Buried in the Weekend section of the Financial Times is a report that the aggregate value of assets that earn negative nominal yields has substantially expanded since the beginning of 2019 and has reached a new high. So, on January 1, 2019, the value of these assets was...
By Krishna Memani , Vice Chairman of Investments The Fed's pivot to easier policy likely extends the current business cycle As the global equity markets rebounded from their December 2018 lows, we have all heard the constant refrain: Bad news being good news can't last, the day of...