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When you have entered this space, you may be assured that you have gone into some kind of distorted world, possibly created by Aldous Huxley. It may be a "Brave New World," but it may also be a level of Dante's "Inferno." Whatever it eventually turns out to be, it is certainly a historical pro...
Henry Curr is the economics editor for The Economist magazine, and the author of a special report by the magazine on the phenomenon of low inflation now facing the global economy. Henry joins Macro Musings today to outline this report and the big questions surrounding low inflation. Dav...
We believe one of the most attractive features of emerging markets debt, from a portfolio construction perspective, is the diversification potential it can provide. Within emerging markets debt, local currency bonds have historically provided the greatest diversification benefit compared to U....
It's no longer just me using terms like "Armageddon, crisis, devastating, chaos, Great Depression;" it's leaders of the world's most august and conservative central banks. The big banking squeeze that began in September never went away. In fact, repo auctions last week looked worse than ever...
Because the prevailing theory behind the global slowdown is "trade wars", most, if not all, attention is focused on China. While the correct target, everyone is coming it at from the wrong direction. The world awaits a crash in Chinese exports engineered by US tariffs. It's not happening, at...
Government bond yields started rising again in September, following several months of record-low levels around much of the globe. Only Greece and Italy bucked the trend, with the mid-yield on their 10-year benchmark notes dropping by 22 and 21 basis points to end the month at 1.27% and 0.81%, ...
In The Great Crash of 1929 , John Kenneth Galbraith describes the bezzle, the "inventory of undiscovered embezzlements," that grows in times of rising markets. When the markets collapse, these schemes are exposed and lead to large losses for investors. But Galbraith identified a sweet spot ...
Yields on 10-year government debt continued to decline in August. All of the 18 sovereign markets Tradeweb tracks in its monthly Government Bond Update saw yields fall by more than 10 basis points, with some even hitting record low levels in the process. Leading the pack was the 10-year U.S....
Why are interest rates so low? Here is the 10-year bond yield, by itself and subtracting the previous year's inflation (CPI less food and energy). The 10-year yield has basically been on a downward trend since 1987. One should subtract expected 10-year future inflation, not past inflation, a...
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair. We ha...