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Last week stocks shuddered as ten year yields dipped below treasury bills, reminding investors that yield curve inversions eerily precede recessions. A St. Louis Fed model using the yield curve gives a 30% probability of a recession within a year, up from 24% in December. Nonetheless, the S&...
Is it different this time? Popular measures of the yield curve, including the 10-year vs. 3-month Treasury spread, have inverted which has caused interest rates to move to the front page. Interest rates are always on my front page in terms of analyzing markets and we accurately predicted t...
There’s no real nice way to say that I found Wednesday's FOMC minutes to be disgraceful. The only conclusion I’m left with is that Jerome Powell has capitulated and is now scared of either the market turning on him, the president turning on him or both. Otherwise, how do you expl...
S&P 500: What Is Priced In Today? Starting in January of this year, I started to write about the earnings expectations that are priced into the S&P 500 or the more commonly traded SPDR S&P 500 Trust ( SPY ) ETF. I started in January by writing a research note, which you can fi...
Geoffrey H. Moore was famously called "the father of leading indicators" for his composite index approach to forecasting business cycles. In this research note, I want to walk through an example of a leading indicator that Moore described for the employment market in a 1983 working pa...
The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee meets on Wednesday and the feeling is that there will be no change in the central bank’s policy rate of interest. Fed watchers, however, will be looking for changes in the “feel and tone” of what Federal Reserve officials wr...
In Macro Letter - No 108 - 18-01-2019 - A world of debt - where are the risks? I looked at the increase in debt globally, however, there has been another trend, since 2009, which is worth investigating as we consider from whence the greatest risk to global growth may hail. The BIS global...
Eaton Vance Management's Andrew Szczurowski sees factors supporting U.S. government bonds--i.e., trade wars and disappointing economic data--starting to fade in H2 2019. More news on: iShares MBS ETF, Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities Index ETF, SPDR Barclays Capital Mortgage Backed...
The BCI at 249.2 is below last week's 249.9, and remains below this business cycle’s peak as indicated by the BCIp at 80.3. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 9.5 is below last week’s 10.1. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to drop be...
A little over one month ago, I penned a research note titled, " Bonds Are Saying Something - We Should Be Listening ," in which I gave a comprehensive analysis of interest rates and discussed the opposing messages in the stock market and the bond market. While some readers took this anal...
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2024-07-22 01:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-11 22:16:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-01 23:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...