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Yesterday, I asked the question, “ Which is Right? The Bond Market or the Stock Market? .” Prices in both markets had been rising over the past month, or two, or three. This is not the usual situation, so it was natural to raise the question about which market is right about ...
The euphoria that carried the stock market to an 8% gain in January all but erased the pessimism that led to one of the worst December's on record, when the S&P 500 ( SPY ) fell nearly 9%. Net, over the past two months, there has been a lot of chop, volatility and constantly shifting narr...
Prices in the bond market and in the stock market have been traveling in the same direction. This is not the pattern one might expect. Looking at the bond market first, bond prices have been rising for the past three months. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit 3.25 percent on Nove...
A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginning and end of recessions (Appendix B charts the UER recession indicator for the period 1948 to 2015). The unemployment rate model ( article link ) updated with the January 2019 rate...
What the Fed did and said Wednesday Facts first, interpretation second, trading and investing thoughts last. Here is the key part of what the Federal Open Market Committee's statement said Wednesday: ...the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2...
The outlook for gold continues to brighten now that it no longer has to compete with higher interest rates. In today’s report, we’ll discuss the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate statement and its impact on the bullion price. We’ll also examine gold’s ...
The BCI at 243.9 is below above last week's 244.7, and remains below this business cycle’s peak as indicated by the BCIp at 57.0. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 5.6 is above last week’s 5.4. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs ...
During most of 2018, as the stock market seemingly drifted higher each day, equity bulls were empowered to make renewed calls for the end of the bond bull market that has been ongoing since the 1980's when the 30-year Treasury rate was north of 15%. There were also several name notable invest...
The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) recently released their quarterly survey on business conditions which resulted in a more gloomy outlook for sales, pricing, and profits than previous surveys. The respondents in the survey also reported that neither the trade war, nor...
“Kill yourself for recognition Kill yourself to never ever stop You broke another mirror You're turning into something you are not” --High And Dry, Radiohead, 1995 The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 gave corporate earnings a sugar high. GAAP earnings on the S...
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2024-07-22 01:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-11 22:16:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-01 23:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...