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To help address investor concerns about Russia-Ukraine tensions, our Portfolio Managers examine the impact on their respective asset classes and potential allocation changes. We believe sanctions initially will focus on Russia’s top security personnel and companies directly inv...
With January’s 7.5% headline CPI reading coming in as the highest inflation number in nearly 40 years, now seems an opportune time to assess the outlook for inflation. Understanding where inflation is heading is not only important from an economic perspective, but the direction...
As inflation has proven more resilient than transitory, investors are searching for a way to protect their investments against erosion. Growth companies are extremely vulnerable to inflation and rate hikes. Broad commodities are the only asset here that has historically performed ...
Developed market 10yr rates jump as the US 10yr hurdles the 1.9% figure. The 2% level is in sight as multiple signs point north for yields. Commodities remain on fire – both energy and agricultural types. Real yields are important to watch. High rates after inflation co...
Disinflation, and ultimately deflation, is a more significant threat than inflation over the next two years. Over the coming decades, the massive surge in unproductive debt will increase deflationary pressures and slower economic growth. Throughout 2022, disinflation will likely b...
For investors who want to earn a reasonable return without taking excessive risks, diversification still works, and we think you’re going to need more of it this year. The weighing of the high-flyers is not over. Commodities had another good week, and the 1-year return is getti...
2022 is starting with several issues that could create serious volatility for traders in the months ahead. The situation in the Indo-Pacific is a slowly developing story between China and Taiwan. The Ukrainian situation is a bit different in that there are two main markets which c...
We believe that the CPI has flaws in estimating the inflation rate. The Phillips Curve helps us to understand only the past. Financial markets seem to have overreacted in their fear of the Fed. For further details see: Phillips Curves And The Fed
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index edged down in January from the previous month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors to adjust the forecast reduces GMI’s ex-ante risk premium to an annualized 5.4%. Th...
Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, discusses his thoughts on the top themes to watch going into 2022. The world economy came into 2021 like a car going 200 miles an hour, which fueled by the biggest stimulus we'd gotten since World War II. The Fed is sort of the cause of the uncertainty ...