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2023-08-08 00:01:00 ET Summary The tough part to the CPI / PPI data the last 18 months, is that the “compares” for the CPI get tougher as we move through 2023, since CPI inflation peaked in June ’22. One of the problems with hyper-focus on any particular set o...
2023-08-05 10:38:45 ET Gainers: 2x Long VIX Futures ETF ( UVIX ) +27% . Credit Suisse S&P MLP Index ETN ( MLPO ) +21% . ConvexityShares Daily 1.5x SPIKES Futures ETF ( SPKY ) +20% . ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF ( UVXY ) +19% ...
2023-07-26 04:34:00 ET Summary Investors who seek defensive equity portfolios might think they need to sacrifice long-term return potential to reduce volatility. Our research suggests that S&P 500 stocks segregated into the highest quintile for QSP characteristics fared relati...
2023-07-24 21:30:00 ET Summary The main factors lifting the market during the week were positive bank earnings reports and additional data indicating tamer-than-previously expected inflation. Investors however remain focused on 2023-Q4 after having set their forward-looking attent...
2023-07-22 05:40:00 ET Summary We’ve been anticipating a recession for some time, but I believe the US economy is too strong to experience one this year. Core inflation has been stubbornly high, but I expect it to fall as the impact of flattening home prices makes its way i...
2023-07-21 22:54:00 ET Summary Lower real return: after factoring in inflation and taxes, the real return of a money market is much lower than investors may expect. Lower long-term performance: longer-term government bonds, corporate bonds, and stocks have historically returned mo...
2023-07-19 09:02:00 ET Summary Although central banks slashed benchmark rates to zero by December 2008 and pumped unprecedented liquidity (QE), financial markets tanked until March 2009. The US Fed will likely pause its tightening efforts soon. But the economic cycle and stock mar...
2023-07-19 06:36:00 ET Summary Nasdaq’s plan to reconfigure the weights of its constituents should prompt investors to think about the broader concentration risks in US equity markets, particularly in passive portfolios. Concentration risks extend beyond Nasdaq. The broader...
2023-07-17 13:15:00 ET Summary The global custodial banks like State Street, Bank of New York Mellon, and Northern Trust don’t look very healthy. The interesting part to the 2023 S&P 500 EPS data is that 2023 is now expecting 0-1% EPS growth for 2023. We could defin...
2023-06-26 21:42:00 ET Summary The bedrock of the asset allocation process is to create strategic allocations that work over the longer term, while then modifying those positions in response to the market realities. Some of what we have seen during 2023 has been due to exuberance ...
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