Heineken: Q3 Resilience, CMD Upside, And Attractive Valuation

2025-10-25 12:37:23 ET

Today, we revisit Heineken ( OTCQX:HEINY ) in light of its Q3 results and Capital Markets Day. Spirits and beer have softened across the board, and most companies flag ongoing pressure among lower-middle-income consumers and certain groups — particularly the Hispanic community. Some headwinds are cyclical, but moderation is also emerging as a structural theme. Against these trends, our bias tilts to beer rather than spirits, and we like Heineken’s strategy to broaden reach among Gen Z and women while tapping emerging markets. Additionally, our buy rating was backed by its EverGreen strategic plan (updated today with new targets), 2) the premiumization trend in beer, and 3) a valuation gap compared to peers. Despite this, the stock has barely moved (Fig. 1). ...

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