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Summary China’s reopening, lower energy prices and cooling inflation reinforce our long-term positive view on equities. Yet, we think market optimism has come too soon. Stocks paused their rally and bond yields steadied after recession worries returned. We think we are starting t...
Summary High yield bonds are back above the inflation line. The Bloomberg U.S. High Yield Index now stands at 8.19%, which is now more than 100 basis points over our average inflation rate. It has been gradually creeping higher, partially because of the Fed’s rate manipulatio...
Summary Introduction. The State of Ambivalence. Clouds on the horizon. For further details see: State Of Ambivalence
Summary Central banker prudence and inflation-fighting resolve should err on the side of not conveying a rapidly concluding tightening cycle. Financial conditions almost immediately began to loosen globally, a loosening that has gathered important momentum early in 2023. Systemic ri...
Summary The current slope of the US Treasury yield curve is inverted. Two-year yields are higher than 10-year yields, and to us that means that investors are focused on a few things. We’re starting to see a slowdown in interest-rate-sensitive sectors, most pronounced in US housin...
Summary For the twelfth straight month, mutual fund investors were net redeemers of fund assets, withdrawing $94.1 billion from conventional funds for December. Fixed-income funds (-$53.0 billion) witnessed net outflows for the fourth consecutive month, while money market funds (+$86.9 ...
Summary Stocks don’t bottom until central banks have slashed short rates enough to drop them back below long, re-steepening the curve to positive sloping once more. HY bond prices typically bottom with equities once HY yield spreads have reached 800+ bps above similar-term treasu...
Summary Strains are building, and the U.S. will likely enter recession in the second half of 2023. By then, Europe will likely be emerging from recession, while China and Emerging Asia may be enjoying a COVID-reopening-inspired recovery. Segments of the inflation basket will soften rapi...
Summary Following a protracted period of rate hikes that began in March 2022, both bond yields and yield spreads are at multi-year highs. Strong fundamentals are due in part to fiscal prudence necessitated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The European Central Bank has concluded its myriad ...
Summary QQQ and the S&P 500 have dropped from all-time record overvaluations a year ago but are still trading at more than double their average ratios relative to the profits of their components. Real estate has fallen modestly from its all-time highs in recent months but is about 7...
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2024-07-12 05:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-22 07:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-31 16:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...