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The invasion of Ukraine is an inflationary shock to an already inflationary system. The International Energy Agency has warned that the impact on oil supply will peak only from May onwards. Since the war broke out, core government bonds have suffered sustained price declines unsee...
When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise. While decelerating from the pace of 2021, U.S. economic growth is expected to remain positive in 2022, pending further unexpected inflat...
Some familiar faces have come back to investment grade status this year, providing tactical investment opportunities. From here, we expect rising star momentum to continue in the coming quarters, with key contributors in sectors such as Energy, Autos and Healthcare. As they migrat...
If China were to continue to pursue a Zero Covid policy amidst rising case counts, supply chains originating in Asia could get shut down again. On the food front, wheat is particularly vulnerable to a prolonged conflict, which has been reflected in the performance of wheat futures. ...
Global growth uncertainty has accelerated, while inflation appears likely to persist. Still, we anticipate neither recession nor stagnation; moreover, central bank tightening expectations have likely peaked, potentially normalizing interest rate volatility and supporting spread sector...
As investors continue to digest the likely path of this tightening cycle, we think the dramatic moves of recent weeks are set to ease, laying a good foundation for credit investors. We now expect the Fed to hike rates by 50 basis points in both May and June, followed by a sequence of ...
Transitioning to a net-zero carbon economy is vitally important, and corporate bonds will play a critical role in the transition. To support that journey, sustainable investors should monitor the carbon impact of the corporate bonds in their portfolios. But there’s a lot mo...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index ticked slightly higher in March to an annualized 5.8% pace, fractionally above last month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) to adjust the forecast trims GMI...
The Treasury curve continued flattening during the first quarter of 2022, with short-term Treasury yields rising precipitously while longer Treasury yields rose at a slower rate. As the Treasury curve flattened and yields rose, spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable munici...
Follow the Money is a series of brief, information-rich posts that I will publish periodically but not on a fixed schedule. After rallying for 9 of the last 11 days, the S&P 500 went from down -13% to down just -3.4%. Growth has been hit hard by the slide in tech stocks this y...
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2024-06-22 08:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-12 09:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-31 17:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...