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Summary Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered another forceful message to markets that an early pivot back to rate cuts will not happen until inflation is under control. However, there is still an element of wishful thinking in the Fed’s forecasts and rhetoric that part...
Summary The Federal Reserve delivered another outsized rate increase at today’s FOMC meeting, raising the Fed Funds target by 75 basis points to a new range of 3.00%–3.25%. In early 2008, the Fed was cutting rates due to the financial crisis and great recession, whil...
Summary The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates today and another 75-basis point hike is widely expected. Consumer price inflation remains far above the Fed’s 2% target, although there are hints that maybe, possibly, pricing pressure has peaked. As a num...
Summary Another FOMC meeting, and another 75bp hike. But there is a rump going for 100bp, so 75bp could be positive for risk assets (albeit briefly). The dot plot will be watched, as the terminal rate is key for where market yields peak. A 75bp hike takes the effective funds r...
Summary After several years of steady growth and low inflation, policymakers now face a delicate tradeoff between bringing down inflation or sustaining economic growth amid heightened macro and market volatility. We expect the Fed to remain committed to aggressive rate hikes. ...
Summary The recent August print showed that consumer prices continued to rise year over year – albeit more slowly than prior months. We have remained a bit more cautious than the market’s consensus inflation expectations. We’re not convinced that inflation...
Summary Markets did not like the August CPI increase over the number from July, which remained essentially unchanged, though a significant decline had been predicted. Outside of food and energy, the inflation picture is not much better. Price pressures appear to have increased...
Summary Although consumers are benefiting from robust labor markets and strong balance sheets, they appear reluctant to buy high-cost durable goods. A key to navigating inflation risk is understanding its relationship with asset class returns. Historically, high-inflation episodes...
Summary This week the Fed funds rate will likely rise above the prior Fed funds rate hiking cycle for the first time in 40 years or so. I am of the opinion that the Fed overly stimulated the economy in 2021 and now we are all paying the price for their past mistakes. It is thi...
Summary The consensus expectation on Tuesday for August CPI was for a 0.1% decline, but the positive +0.1% monthly gain in the CPI shocked Wall Street. This inflation news spooked Treasury bond yields, pushing 10-year yields up from 3.36% on Monday to 3.42% on Tuesday. Now tha...
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated on Tuesday that a prolonged period of restrictive monetary policy may be necess...
Iran launched a barrage of explosive drones and missiles towards Israel late on Saturday in its first direct attack on Israeli soil, prompting conc...
2024-04-12 09:50:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...