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Summary It was yet another brutal month for the bullish traders and long-term investors holding a balanced portfolio. The S&P 500 fell about 8% while the AGG total bond market ETF fell nearly 4%, including dividends. Looking ahead, key economic data hits next week before t...
Summary The dollar index tracks the US dollar's strength relative to other rich world currencies, but it also does a lot more than that. Due to the nature of globalization since the World Wars, the dollar index also tracks the performance of emerging markets relative to developed ...
Summary Money supply growth fell again in August, dropping to a 36-month low. Money supply growth tends to begin growing again before the onset of recession. Another indicator of recession appears in the form of the gap between M2 and TMS. When the difference between M2 an...
Summary It’s clear to see that the 30-year yield has decisively broken out of its downtrend channel. The bond vigilantes have finally been woken from their long slumber by rapidly rising inflation. It appears the bond vigilantes may throw a wrench in the Fed’s pl...
Summary After a series of hikes, the Fed’s short-run interest rate target lies between 3.0 and 3.25 percent. The problem with Fed policy isn’t excessive tightness, it’s excessive inscrutability. Don’t expect a smooth ride, let alone a soft landing, ...
Summary While the focus has been on Fed Funds Target range in wake of last week’s FOMC meeting, there is also another component to this query: the Treasury 10-Year yield. The Fed certainly made headlines at the just completed September FOMC meeting with their internal proje...
Summary Inflation as measured by government indices (e.g., CPI, PCE Deflator) is a lagging indicator of true inflation. True inflation is defined as the loss of purchasing power of a currency. Right now that is just not the case: the dollar is soaring against nearly every currency...
Summary We believe it is unlikely that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will navigate a pivot to a less-hawkish stance before early in 2023. We expect China to grow at a meager 2%-3% pace in 2022, with the potential for these risks to bleed into 2023, as a slowing developed-market consumer...
Summary In September 2022, there is no denying that inflation is back, and with a vengeance, though we can still debate how quickly it will fade, and to what level. Since 2008, it has become fashionable to attribute all movements in interest rates to Fed action or inaction, and as...
Summary September consumer confidence data verified hotter numbers than the expectations this morning. Interest rates surged later in the day to fresh cycle highs. More data is on deck Friday, and the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Sector ETF remains well above its June low. ...
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated on Tuesday that a prolonged period of restrictive monetary policy may be necess...
Iran launched a barrage of explosive drones and missiles towards Israel late on Saturday in its first direct attack on Israeli soil, prompting conc...
2024-04-12 09:50:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...