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Summary Equity risk premiums are 5.5% historically and reference rates could get as high as 6%. Assuming no earnings growth, earnings yield is a good return metric. European markets represented by IEUR are now trading at almost 10% earnings yields, which means we may not be mo...
Summary Further normalization of headline inflation and aggressive monetary tightening in other regions should keep the U.S. dollar relatively stable, which bodes well for technology companies and other growth-oriented names. The global energy crisis will likely make climate chang...
Summary We believe it is unlikely that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will navigate a pivot to a less-hawkish stance before early in 2023. We expect China to grow at a meager 2%-3% pace in 2022, with the potential for these risks to bleed into 2023, as a slowing developed-market consumer...
Summary Many central banks aren’t acknowledging the extent of recession needed to rapidly reduce inflation. Markets haven’t priced that, so we shun most stocks. Yields surged after more rate hikes and the UK’s fiscal splurge news. We cut UK gilts to underweigh...
Summary On 16 August 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the IRA. The COVID-19-related global supply chain disruptions, extreme weather events, rising inflation, and the Russia-Ukraine crisis have pushed the cost of capital to record highs. Meanwhile, in China, surging c...
Summary As September winds down, three sets of economic reports will draw the most attention. Many will see the US PCE deflator as the key given the monetary cycle, but its thunder has been stolen. The Mexican peso is one of four emerging market currencies that have appreciate...
Summary A global recession is likely, with at least slower economic growth virtually certain. The tightening is not a mistake, but in most cases it’s coming too late, which means more economic damage than it had begun earlier. Businesses selling to China can expect lowe...
Summary The Eurozone economic downturn deepened in September, with business activity contracting for a third consecutive month, according to preliminary survey data. Manufacturing led the downturn, with factory output falling for a fourth straight month. The gloomy outlook pri...
Summary Powell reiterates commitment to restoring price stability. ECB plans to continue rate hikes despite growth slowdown. How rising rates are impacting the U.S. housing market. On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist Erik Ristu...
Summary Rates push higher and curves flatten as the hawkish message from the latest central bank meetings sinks in. The decisions have also highlighted policy transmission issues that have to be overcome as negative rates are left behind. Today's eurozone PMIs underscore the g...
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2024-07-02 09:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-12 11:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-12 10:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...