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Based on monetary trends and the early reaction in the economy, we anticipate a slowing growth environment in the U.S., with rising recession risk that depends on the extent of frontloaded Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Following the initial COVID shock in 2020, investment grade...
Europe is facing the risk of an energy shock-driven recession and periphery stress. That’s why we think the ECB will stop hiking earlier than the Fed. Relentless U.S. inflation last week signaled a big rate hike by the Fed later this month. Long-term yields fell amid fears rate...
The US and eurozone June composite PMI had nearly converged at 52.3 and 52.0, respectively. The BOJ saw the economy expanding 2.9% this year and slowing to 1.9% next and 1.1% in 2024. In June, the ECB raised the TLTRO rate to its deposit rate (-0.50%), and banks repaid almost 75 b...
Financial markets remained turbulent through Q2 of 2022 as inflationary pressures, interest rate hikes, & ongoing war in Ukraine weighed on investor sentiment, & we've come to accept that the future will likely look different from the past. We now expect U.S. inflation to peak...
K2 Advisors team is monitoring economic growth, earnings, supply chains, and inflation for clues as to whether central banks can achieve the elusive soft landing. Central bank policy paths are a clear focal point for markets as policymakers seek to navigate above-target inflation and ...
At the heart of this market volatility is inflation uncertainty, which results in policy uncertainty. The U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”), once the leader of “team transitory” is shifting its strategy. The May CPI upside surprise, along with the University of ...
The market now has more than a 50% probability attached to a 100bp hike from the Fed in July. We think this is overdone, and we think the bond market agrees with us. The outcome can be flipped in either direction by the Fed in the period ahead of the meeting on July 27. It's the E...
Equities would suffer if rate hikes trigger a growth downturn. Europe has the opportunity to create a more sustainable and more resilient version of itself – replacing high dependencies on Russian energy and shedding the image of an “old” economy by accelerating t...
An investment in Nigeria or Turkey clearly exposes a firm or investor to more risks than an otherwise similar investment in Germany or Canada, but why? While country risk has so many dimensions to it, there is correlation across the many dimensions, with corruption, poor legal protect...
Last quarter, the Asset Allocation Committee adopted an underweight view on global equities and leaned more heavily into cash, commodities and other alternative, diversifying assets. The Committee’s views on real and alternative assets are unchanged this quarter. The Asset ...
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2024-07-02 09:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-12 11:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-12 10:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...