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Summary A week of rest and consolidation has set up volatility next week as key data will be released. "Higher for longer" rate expectations are gaining traction but would be discouraged by a disinflationary CPI report. Key technical levels to watch in the S&P 500 in the week ah...
Summary CPI is expected to see a big jump in January month-over-month. Recent revisions showed that inflation was running hotter than was previously thought. Inflation swaps, bonds, options suggest that CPI could come in hotter than expected. The upcoming February 14 Consu...
Summary After years of strong returns, 2022 was the worst year for global equities since the 2008 financial crisis. This trend is evident in the recent increase in securities lending activity, the mechanism which enables short selling. In December 2022 alone, the iShares Russell 200...
Summary After having collapsed in November 2022, U.S. imports of goods produced in China shrank again in December 2022. Trailing-twelve month average combined value of goods traded between the U.S. and China was below a counterfactual trajectory based on the recovery of trade between th...
Summary The US trade surplus in services dipped further in 2022, from the already beaten down levels of 2021, to $244 billion, the lowest since 2012, and the fourth year in a row of declines. Imports of goods spiked by $425 billion, or by 15%, to $3.28 trillion. Exports of goods jum...
Summary The Cleveland Fed forecasts inflation to start plateauing in January and February. The Fed will have to be more aggressive and hike above the currently expected 5.1%. Long-term nominal interest rates expected to rise, and the bear market in TLT expected to continue. ...
Summary So far in 2023, value-indiscriminate buyers are still pounding into the riskiest low-yielding assets with wild abandon. Fat yield spreads above risk-free rates are also known as an attractive reward for capital risk. Since 1920, this month, BBB bonds are yielding about 100 b...
Summary It's been a while since we've seen a meaningful top in this bear market. Incidentally, 4,200 in the S&P 500 is the 20% bear market bounce many market participants have eyed as a plausible near-term top. The Fed, inflation, worsening economic readings, the consumer, an ea...
Summary There's a massive repricing in rates taking place. The Fed Funds Futures now see a peak terminal rate of 5.1%. The odds are rising that rates go even higher than those projections. All it took was one data point, and now the market is suddenly not only seeing things th...
Summary Last week gave the bulls everything they could have reasonably wanted. An obliging FOMC, strong data, and positive technicals, all contributed to the rally to 4195. The only 'problem' is that with everything going right, something can easily go wrong. Bears will look for a s...
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2024-07-02 10:50:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-22 11:58:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-31 20:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...