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Back in the 1980s and 1990s, many people thought excessive government spending and the resulting debt would bring inflation or even hyperinflation. We wanted a hawkish Federal Reserve or, better yet, a gold standard to prevent it. Reality turned out differently. Federal debt rose steadily,...
Unlike most articles that have the President's name in the title, this note will not be political in nature but rather will discuss some facts regarding the trade dispute with China and our trading relationship with the rest of the world. I want to outline one of the problems that the admini...
As many long-term followers of my economic research are well aware, I have been a bull on Treasury bonds since 2017, citing slower economic growth and weaker inflation. Interest Rates Will Always Follow Nominal GDP Growth Trends: Source: BEA, FRED, BLS, EPB Macro Research I started...
The U.S. economy now appears to be heading into Quad 4 market scare. In our model, Quad 4 is an environment of U.S growth slowing, inflation slowing . That spells trouble ahead for the market. And so the question becomes, how will the Federal Reserve react? And how fast? In this ...
Barring a dramatic turn, May will be the worst month of 2019 for many major global benchmarks. Indeed, it will likely be the first down month of the year for stocks. The proximate cause is obvious: The trade war between the world's two largest economies is back on. The re-escalation of trade...
Right now, the Federal Reserve seems to be doing very well. Because the Federal Reserve seems to be dong very well and seems to be controlling the situation, the value of the US dollar has strengthened this year and shows many signs of moving even higher. The value of the US dollar is an i...
The U.S. Treasury's reopening auction of a 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security - CUSIP 9128285W6 - went off as expected Thursday, generating a real yield to maturity of 0.567%. In the hours before the auction close at 1 p.m. EDT, this TIPS was trading on the secondary market with...
The BCI at 257.7 is below last week's upward revised 258.8, and is below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 89.8. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 14.2 is below last week’s 14.2. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp n...
The U.S. Treasury announced last week that it will offer $11 billion in a reopening auction Thursday of CUSIP 9128285W6, creating a 9-year, 8-month Treasury Inflation-Protected Security. This reopening will be another indication of how greatly the market for Treasuries overall and TIPS in ...
Let's start with the good news: while many worry indicators are rising today, along with the decline in stocks, the US dollar is weaker. It will be hard to declare if a risk-off environment has fully gripped the markets without a meaningful surge in the safe-haven dollar (see figure 4), which ...
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State Street Global Advisors, the asset management business of State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT), today announced the addition of seven rebranded SPDR ETFs to the SPDR Portfolio suite. Introduced in 2017 and attracting $34.4 billion in new assets in just two years, 1 the SPDR Portfolio off...