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The BCI at 255.2 is up from last week's downward revised 254.7, and remains below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 78.4. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 9.8 is below last week’s 10.2. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recessi...
The data is improving and that should be a good thing. I've variously argued (both on this platform and on my site) that the most important takeaway from last week was also the simplest. US equities hit new highs even has bond yields rose. Here's a simple chart I used in my traditional Su...
In a recent article , I issued a reminder that the performance of Wall Street does not always reflect the realities of Main Street. For instance, as the ISM Manufacturing Index, a measure of industrial America's confidence in the economy, falters to a critical 50-ish level, financial condit...
The market is now at record highs, and unemployment is way down. Even so, a U.S. rate cut is expected as early as this week. During his congressional testimony last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell raised concerns over slower global growth and trade tensions, which in turn have con...
The U.S. Treasury will offer a new 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security - CUSIP 9128287D6 - in a $14 billion auction Thursday, with the real yield likely to fall substantially below recent results for this term. As of Friday's market close, the Treasury was estimating the real y...
As the market keeps running joyously up and slumping anxiously down on speculation of Fed interest rate actions, I thought somebody should issue a reminder: Wall Street is not Main Street . There may have been a day when one could simply look at the performance of the stock market to gauge ...
I write fairly often about U.S. Savings Bonds, especially inflation-protected Series I Savings Bonds, and the reaction I get from some Seeking Alpha readers is: "Why the heck is this guy writing about Savings Bonds?" OK, I get it. Savings Bonds are probably the most safe, most elementary, mo...
With the trade war in full swing and the USA attacking many of its trading partners over perceived unfairness in trade relationships, what would happen if Brazil dumped its considerable holding of Treasuries into the secondary market or chose not to buy any more Treasuries and let the remainde...
Weekly Risk Signals 2014 Dow Award Winner/An Intermarket Approach to Beta Rotation: Risk-On 2014 Founders Award Winner/An Intermarket Approach to Risk Rotation: Risk-On 2015 Founders Award Winner/Lumber: Worth Its Weight in Gold: Risk-Off 2016 Dow Award Winner/Leverage for the Long...
On the heels of the Osaka trade truce struck between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping over the weekend, investors got the relief rally they were looking for on Monday. Gains were especially pronounced in tech and chip stocks, which surged thanks to the Trump administration's softer approach to the ...
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State Street Global Advisors, the asset management business of State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT), today announced the addition of seven rebranded SPDR ETFs to the SPDR Portfolio suite. Introduced in 2017 and attracting $34.4 billion in new assets in just two years, 1 the SPDR Portfolio off...