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This is not a year in which investors have needed to hedge their equity risk. As of this writing, stocks have not only rallied, they've rallied with a consistency last seen in 2017, at least until the last day of July and the first of August. But as investors look to protect gains and season...
Nina Karnaukh of Ohio State sent along this lovely graph of the 6-month Fed Funds futures around the beginning of August. Read this as the market's guess about what is happening to the Federal Funds rate over the next 6 months. The first drop in price occurs with the FOMC announcement at 2 P...
While most of the economics profession seems to assume that a Fed cut in interest rates means money is getting easier, policy has dramatically tightened in recent weeks. Perhaps the most startling data point is the expected level of interest rates in the Fed Funds futures market , which has...
During what was variously described as a disastrous press conference on Wednesday, Jerome Powell said trade tensions nearly "boiled over" in May and June but "returned to a simmer" in July. The Fed Chair made a number of mistakes over the course of his press conference, and that was one of t...
On July 31, the FOMC decided to reduce its short-term interest rate target by 25 bps. It was a move in the right direction (as I suggested in late May), but as today's market action demonstrated, it was an overly cautious move, particularly in light of escalating global trade tensions (i.e.,...
By Sonal Desai, Ph.D., Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income The US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark short-term interest rate for the first time in 11 years in what Chairman Jerome Powell called a "mid-cycle adjustment" to sustain the U...
Both food and energy expenditures as a share of total personal consumption are at or near record lows. When combined together, they are at a record low for the first half of 2019. Between a very strong dollar and lack of any major supply disruptions in both food and energy, the skies are qui...
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to trim interest rates today, and the prospect of low and possibly lower inflation in the months ahead is a key factor. The Treasury market's implied inflation forecast is hinting at the possibility that pricing pressure may be set for a new downturn. T...
The short answer is no. So why does the WSJ suggest otherwise? "One reason the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates this week is that inflation is running below its 2% target. New research shows why getting it higher has proved so difficult: many of the prices consumers pa...
Transcript Drivers of Gold in 2019 We've seen a significant shift in Fed [U.S. Federal Reserve] policies over the course of 2019. Remember, back in December the Fed was raising rates. This year, they have become more dovish, and at the last FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] meeti...
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2024-06-22 15:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-12 02:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-02 07:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...