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2024-05-27 03:32:00 ET Summary Today’s unemployment and inflation environment is a far cry from what it was in the 1980s' stagflationary years. Median stock market volatility in year four of an election cycle is essentially the same as it is in years one and three. Chin...
2024-05-26 16:00:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 held the 5264 re-test of the March high. However, the "engulfing" bar from Thursday is a danger sign, last seen at a 52-week high in July 2023. 5257 needs to hold for bulls to stay in control. Last weekend's article ...
2024-05-26 06:15:00 ET Summary Rising interest rates, inflation risk, and a stronger dollar have continued to trend higher in recent weeks. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields has fallen below -40 bps, potentially indicating a further inversion of the yield c...
2024-05-25 09:30:00 ET Summary Stronger than expected data and hawkish FOMC minutes lifted US rates and the dollar, while the market reduced expectations of ECB easing. Sterling remained resilient despite weak economic data, but rate expectations were impacted by stronger than exp...
2024-05-24 20:30:00 ET Summary This week, the S&P 500 closed at 5,304.72, while the close last week was 5,303.27. The forward 4-quarter estimate for the S&P 500 dropped a little this week to $252.61 from last week’s $252.93. The P/E ratio this week is 21x vs. 21...
2024-05-24 18:40:00 ET Summary The “Magnificent Seven” became the “Magnificent One” - Nvidia. The Fed minutes trigger a market collapse on no new news. When in doubt, return to the Covid playbook. My guess the reason to be primitive AI...
2024-05-24 09:45:00 ET Summary It is widely known that markets can be influenced by economic data releases that deviate significantly from consensus. We have quantified the impact of economic surprises on the US government bond market for different tenors, as measured by the quint...
2024-05-24 07:35:00 ET Summary The dollar is paring yesterday's advance that was spurred by the rise in US rates following the preliminary PMI. Asia Pacific and European equities have sold off in the wake of yesterday's slide in the US. The Canadian dollar was the weakest of t...
2024-05-24 04:45:01 ET Summary The Fed warns that "valuations across a range of markets appeared high relative to risk-adjusted cash flows". This is essentially a warning about the "everything bubble". Due to the sticky and elevated inflation, the Fed will be forced to burst t...
2024-05-24 00:05:00 ET Summary The current focus of the FOMC is on achieving the inflation mandate rather than the employment mandate. The FOMC is more concerned about the risk of inflation than the state of the labor market. Unemployment remains low and is not a major concern...
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2024-07-03 08:30:00 ET If you've been a student of the market for any meaningful length of time, you've likely stumbled across advice to just buy and hold an S&P 500 index fund like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEMKT: SPY) . And it's a good tip. Not only is such a plan ...
2024-05-02 07:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-22 13:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...