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2023-03-27 11:20:00 ET Summary Central banks confront the growth-inflation trade-off, with the Federal Reserve seeing recession but no rate cuts. We agree - and prefer inflation-linked bonds. Bank stocks remained under pressure last week. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield slid furt...
2023-03-25 01:37:00 ET Summary Many “recession indicators” are ringing alarm bells, from inverted yield curves to various manufacturing and production indexes. While the market is starting to price in just one additional rate hike by the Fed, the “lag effect...
2023-03-24 15:31:48 ET iShares Russell Top 200 ETF ( NYSEARCA: IWL ) - $0.3612 . 30-Day SEC Yield of 1.52% as of Feb. 28. Payable Mar 29; for shareholders of record Mar 24; ex-div Mar 23. For further details see: iShares Russell Top 200 ETF declares quarterly...
2023-03-23 06:28:00 ET Summary In a closely watched decision, the Fed lifted its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the conclusion of its March policy meeting. We almost always know what the Fed is going to do on announcement day because the dat...
2023-03-23 06:00:58 ET Summary Powell's remarks were generally hawkish. In particular, he pushed back against expectations of a pivot later in 2023. Yellen's remarks threw cold water on hopes for a quick and decisive extension of insurance guarantees for all US deposits. The c...
2023-03-21 15:02:00 ET Summary Six weeks ago, a recession forecasting model developed by a U.S. Federal Reserve analyst predicted the probability of recession in the U.S. would soon rise above 50%. Assuming the Fed follows through on hiking the Federal Funds Rate by another 0.25% ...
2023-03-21 04:20:00 ET Summary Major bank failures are occurring in the US and Europe. Bank failures are common in major recessions, and all fractional reserve banks are at risk. This banking crisis could be worse than the Great Recession. High inflation puts the Fed betwe...
2023-03-21 02:30:00 ET Summary Inflation flares up and interest rates rise, reducing the value of the municipal bonds and funding dries up. Despite all the turmoil in the banking sector, US stocks managed to post a gain last week but it was entirely due to the rise in technology a...
2023-03-20 11:15:00 ET Summary Now that their interest rate policy is starting to cause things to break, the Fed can continue to raise interest rates and watch the systemic risk to the system increase or cut interest rates and watch inflation explode. I expect them to raise rates ...
2023-03-18 08:30:00 ET Summary The Fed began raising interest rates one year ago, on March 17, 2022, and the U.S. economy is not in recession. Milton Friedman famously found that the time lags are long and variable. The factors delaying recession will not prevent it, and it...
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2024-07-12 13:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-22 16:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-22 02:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...