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Once the COVID distortions are over the economy will return to its previous state of roughly 2% growth and 2% inflation. Real sales of durable goods surged throughout COVID but accelerated rapidly with stimulus payments; sales peaked right as Biden’s American Rescue Act was imp...
We are nowhere near demand destruction for oil and gas. Blackouts, brownouts, surging prices are crashing the green energy narrative. Interestingly, people like electricity and get really grumpy when its not there. We think a golden age of renewal for non-renewables is about to be...
The transition towards a decarbonized economy is underway. It will involve a massive reallocation of resources. Economies will be reshaped as carbon emissions are cut, inevitably impacting portfolios. A possible acceleration from the current path, plus repricing that could have furthe...
We expect elevated inflation to continue into 2023 due to the lagged impact of food supply disruption and elevated energy costs. Should a recession occur, its scale is likely to be limited by the reduced number of negative feedback loops. Consumers enter this slowdown with a large...
The gap between energy stocks and consumer discretionary stocks is striking. We think the market is suggesting that extreme energy inflation will lead to a dramatic reduction in spending. If consumer spending turns out to be more resilient than the market expects, we think the con...
We remain cautious in equities, but in fixed income, investors now have more yield and credit spread to work with. We think that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes for this cycle are becoming increasingly priced into the yield curve. Our fixed income team has stress-tested fo...
The Energy sector ETF XLE holds a very small number of large-cap oil and gas-related stocks selected from the S&P 500, far fewer than its rivals. Its performance over the past decade has been inconsistent. An equal-weighted holding of just its two top stocks, XOM and CVS, has almo...
U.S. President Joe Biden has criticized oil majors for not stepping up to help combat record-high gasoline prices at the pump. Looking at Refinitiv Datastream, we observe U.S. oil production to see if oil companies have been increasing production since the pandemic. In reality, oi...
The Energy sector bounced along with the overall market on Tuesday, but last week, it was that sector’s turn to get taken to the woodshed. Last week marked just the sixth period in the last 30+ years that the Energy sector underperformed the S&P 500 by more than ten percent...
Due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and Gazprom's plan to cut its natural gas flow to Europe, I expect VET’s average realized prices to increase in the following quarters. In terms of production, VET will not increase its production significantly. However, its FFO will increase s...
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Despite OPEC and its allies’ (aka OPEC+) plans to raise their oil production output target beginning in February, rising demand for oil and natural gas in the recovering global economy should accelerate the performance of energy companies. Therefore, we think dividend-paying ETFs Energ...
With inflation now hitting record highs, we think it could be wise to bet on energy ETFs because the energy sector usually fares well in an inflationary environment. Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE), SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (X...