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Not only has the PMI across the worldwide manufacturing sector enjoyed a literal "V-shaped" recovery, but it has achieved levels of optimism higher than those immediately preceding the lockdown. In North America, US retail sales have rebounded to a high-single digit pace unseen since ...
We're now only a few days from the most pivotal of elections. COVID cases here at home remained highly elevated all summer. And if U.S. infections now follow Europe's trajectory, our nation is facing a dark and challenging winter. The Fed could well be on the cusp of a historic pr...
Likely catalysts behind the market selloff in the U.S. and Europe. Could new lockdowns in Europe derail the region’s economic recovery? China announces new five-year economic plan. For further details see: Non-U.S. Stocks: A Potential Opportunity Amid The Market M...
When the best case for stocks going forward is the hope for more stimulus and corporate handouts, something is wrong. Stretched valuations and exuberant expectations regarding the recovery mean it's time to sell stocks with risks tilted to the downside. Mega-cap tech stocks beatin...
Consumer spending accounted for 68% of GDP in Q3. The bounceback in spending was driven by stimulus and extra unemployment benefits. Negative "net exports" act as a reduction of GDP. In other words, the portion of the stimulus that was spent on consumer goods that were imported, or wh...
U.S. and European equities have continued to tumble, and the halting of economic activity in Europe will likely cause a double-dip recession that is very bad for risk assets. Amid the dip in markets, Pentair and Ford have beat earnings expectations, showing that there are still compan...
What history tells us about what a GOP or Democrat win means for markets. Why financial markets are not pricing in election risks properly. Will Covid-19 derail historical trend for a bullish market after the election? For further details see: A Historical Take On What A...
Almost all recessions in the US are due to demand shocks. So when a bona fide supply shock (aka real shock) comes along, we don't know what to make of it. As of today, the COVID-19 pandemic still looks like a real shock. For further details see: Not Your Older Sister's R...
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 dropped almost 3% yesterday, but today is trying to snap a three-day 5.7% slide that brought it to five-month lows. The S&P 500 gapped lower yesterday and settled on its lows. US shares are trading firmer. The greenback is mostly firmer, though the yen ...
It is not a prerequisite that an overwhelming majority of the country approve of the president for US equities to go up. It’s no secret that the US equity market has historically performed best with a divided government. This election is about who’s going to be the n...
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