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Treasury Secretary Yellen is sticking to the Fed’s prediction that inflation will be “transitory.”. Wednesday’s ADP report created giddy expectations of one million or more total jobs created in April, counting all sectors, but the Labor Department reported...
Markets are still grappling with the Federal Reserve's new framework, leading to a disconnect between market pricing and the Fed’s projections for rates. U.S. job growth unexpectedly slowed in April. We believe near-term activity data will unlikely affect the Fed’s polic...
Leaping to the wrong conclusion is a daily event in the stock market. Friday's jobs report provided a quintessential example. A retreat to the Covid-19 playbook provides a comedy of errors ending in new all-time highs for both the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500, with the Na...
This article looks at 150 years of inflation data from multiple countries, to find correlations and causes. An assessment of whether CPI is accurate, and where it may be off. How different asset classes perform in inflationary/deflationary environments. For further details s...
A big GDP number, rebounding consumer confidence and the first signs of an uptick in inflation - all pointing to a recovery - had some economists positive ahead of the monthly jobs report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday morning. However, the actual number of payr...
The market has pressed to new all-time highs, and in the near term there is little to dampen optimism - the economy continues to strengthen, bolstered by monetary and fiscal stimulus, improving corporate investment and strong retail consumption. If anything has weighed on investors in...
Because absolute valuations are high by historical standards, stocks are generally vulnerable to multiple compression should there be even a hint of unchecked margin pressure, let alone earnings disappointments. Even a modest rate of inflation could have a substantial negative impact ...
Unprecedented stimulus has lifted US economic activity to within touching distance of its pre-pandemic levels. President Biden isn't finished with more money on its way to complement a private sector reopening spending splurge. The result is likely to be an economy that is larger ...
The threat of new trade wars is smaller, but tension hasn’t let up between the US, EU and China. Exporters continue to face higher costs and uncertainty that could weigh on trade growth after this year’s boost from economies opening up. The trade war shocks to the US...
The Institute for Supply Management's composite services index posted a reading of 62.7 in April, dropping 1.0 points from the record high 63.7 in the prior month. Among the key components of the services index, the business-activity index pulled back to 62.7 in April, down from 69.4 ...
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