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As the world reels from the crisis, the blowback is rippling across the world economy and markets. The current risk premia analysis implicitly recommends managing expectations down for GMI and other global multi-asset-class portfolios. The mean reversion factor is estimated as the...
Inflation and the pressure that it’s putting on central banks to normalize policy frame the outlook for 2022. Businesses have benefited as economies have re-opened after the first waves of the pandemic. Two sectors — consumer cyclical and integrated energy — h...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index edged down in January from the previous month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors to adjust the forecast reduces GMI’s ex-ante risk premium to an annualized 5.4%. Th...
With the rise of quantitative credit trading, investors are looking for novel data to better understand their investment risks and drive investment decisions through statistical models. A sub-market that investors frequently look to in search of yield is the high-yield corporate bond ...
Last week, the world’s major central banks marched on from the fight with COVID-19 and started maneuvering their troops for the coming battle against inflation. A day after the U.S. Federal Reserve revealed its plans, and a few hours after the European Central Bank declared its...
The defining characteristics of the economic outlook for 2022 could be more about the composition of global growth than its trend. Year 2022 will be marked by the Fed's tapering and fading fiscal stimulus. The potential for spread pick-up and ratings boosts in the structured credi...
Global economic growth will be slower but still above trend in 2022. This forecast should allow equities to outperform bonds. Inflation has yet to peak, but it will likely decline over the year and as a result any central bank tightening will be modest. 2021 was a year of rebound ...
In the sovereign space, we have a strong preference for BB- or B-rated sovereigns because of the valuation that’s currently offered. On the corporate side, we have a preference in between investment-grade and high-yield rated debt. On the residential side, fundamentals are ...
Taking an active approach in fixed income will be key to finding investment success in the upcoming year. In 2022, we expect the market narrative to transition to the traditional expansionary phase of the business cycle. We believe 2022 will be a strong year for “rising sta...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in November but remains elevated relative to recent history. Adjusting the forecast with short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) reduces - substantially - GMI’s ex...