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The consensus priced into today's market calls for growth and inflation to continue running hot. However, the bond market is fading the reflation consensus - pricing in an imminent bout of deflation. History says to bet on the bond market, indicating major downside risks to stocks...
A weakening credit impulse globally continues to bode poorly for economic momentum for the foreseeable future. The change in the flow of credit (commercial loans taken) has stalled over the last year notwithstanding trillions in cash injected into the lending system through centr...
The Institute for Supply Management’s composite services index rose an all-time high of 64.1 percent in July, gaining 4.0 points from 60.1 percent in the prior month. The business activity index (comparable to the production index in the ISM manufacturing report) increased to 6...
Bank lending practices are a long leading indicator, typically turning down more than one year before a recession. For the second quarter in a row, not only have lending practices loosened, but demand for almost all types of loans has increased. This is strong support for the fore...
Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income in June 2021 is $69,178, an increase of $652 (or 0.95%) from the initial estimate of $68,526 for May 2021. As with each month since January 2021, increases in median household income continue to be accompanied with ra...
Companies that make money, and particularly those that grow their earnings year after year, see the prices of their shares rise. The combination of continued very low interest rates, reopening of the North American economies and ample governmental support encouraged investors to put m...
GMI’s 10-year Sharpe ratio (SR) edged up for a fifth straight month to 0.86, the highest since January 2020, based on a rolling ten-year window via monthly data. Profiling GMI through a drawdown lens also reflects an extended stretch of low risk. GMI is useful as a baseline...
Macro isn’t useful because it can provide you with very precise and timely predictions. Macro is useful because it gives you a general framework for navigating the world. Real investment is spending for future production. And what most people call “investing” is j...
The accelerated consumer spending over the past year was always to be short-lived as households now spend years paying down the additional debt. The credit impulse peaked globally last June and has plunged since. Inflation expectations are set to follow. No one should be surprised...
Capital expenditure expectations appear to have recovered from pre-pandemic levels in most major regions and are trending upwards according to analyst estimates. For the U.S. index, the 12-month forward capital expenditures estimate is currently $885.6 billion, up 13.8% year-over-year...
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2024-07-02 16:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-22 17:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-21 12:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...