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Global real GDP reached a new high in the second quarter of 2021, completing a year-long recovery from the COVID-19 recession. The resilience of the global economy amid a lingering pandemic suggests that the world is learning to live with the COVID-19 virus. Western Europe's consu...
Anyone who has been following the U.S. monthly economic data lately has noticed that the rate of inflation has been rising over the past year as the unemployment rate has fallen. When the Phillips curve first came to widespread attention in the late 1950s and early 1960s, it was inter...
This year’s global symposium of central bankers, policymakers, and academic economists in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, comes at a very important juncture for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes showed that officials ha...
A softening of sentiment indicators comes as rates already sit close to the bottom of their recent range. Positioning might push them lower still, but EUR rates, in particular, are already consistent with more central bank support next year. The belly of the US curve trades cheap,...
The “new normal,” we believe, can be analyzed into two major categories: monetary and fiscal, on one hand, and technological, social, and political on the other. In both categories, the “new normal” long predates the pandemic, which has served mainly to acc...
Factors driving inflation higher in the last few months eased in July. Orlando: It takes a long time for the supply, demand mismatch to even out. Orlando: Economic recovery the most important factor for overall inflation. For further details see: Has The U.S. Inflation W...
The rapid rise in house prices has stirred up the old debate debate about how the BLS calculates housing’s contribution to the CPI. This is no small debate since the US housing market is essentially the economy, mortgage debt comprises 75% of all household debt AND shelter is 3...
St. Louis Fed president James Bullard admits the Fed is out of position to fight price inflation and may be forced to chase, which would be very disruptive for markets. He says that the Fed would have to stop asset purchases and hike rates to above "whatever the neutral policy rate is...
The latest inflation data and labor reports are more robust than in previous tapering cycles, supporting tapering odds. Tapering of asset purchases has led to tighter financial conditions and a more volatile stock market in previous years. The market may be disappointed come Frida...
The pervasive mistake in most forecasting is that of projecting current trends forward. The best corrective against that is the consistent use of both short and long leading indicators. Although disparaged by pundits (who need to justify their Wall Street pay), the Index of Leadin...
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2024-07-02 16:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-22 17:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-21 12:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...