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Pick any barometer of costs these days, and the story is the same: Prices are up - and in a dramatic fashion. The first thing that jumps out is the dismal performance of most asset classes during periods of low growth and high inflation - otherwise known as stagflation. A solid fo...
The US Federal Reserve is turning increasingly hawkish—hiking rates fast enough to slow inflation while maintaining economic growth will be a monumental task. The Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions team opines on what to expect from the Fed and gauges whether it is already...
Interest rates have an outsize effect on equity valuations. The shape of the Treasury yield curve contains all sorts of information about economic expectations. Credit risk spreads between benchmark Treasuries and corporate bonds. Credit risk spreads are not telling us that we sho...
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the sanctions response, and the gyrations in commodity markets cast an even thicker layer of uncertainty on what already was an uncertain economic and financial market outlook before the onset of this horrific war. Despite the many unknowns, we dra...
A stock market crash is something no investor can predict with reasonable certainty. However, that doesn’t stop savvy investors from moving their money into safe havens when enough signs point toward impending downturn. When considering bond investments in a down market, it...
Recent changes in the macro backdrop have created a more compelling case for Investment-Grade Credit, also highlighting specific benefits of the global approach. We believe that current market environment is putting this asset class in the spotlight, given more compelling valuations a...
Now, more than two-thirds of managers expect core inflation to stand between 2.5% and 3.5%. Managers sense the end of the deleveraging trend that was observed in 2021. Global leveraged managers believe that the upside remains limited, with no expectation of spread tightening. ...
Corporate high-yield is outperforming the corporate high-grade index. One unusual aspect to the 2022 stock market selloff is that the Treasury trade hasn't happened. The psychological impact of crude oil and gasoline prices may be a bigger factor in the stock market sentiment data...
The aging population drove a steady rise in retirees over the past decade. The pandemic accelerated this with a surge in those opting to retire sooner than previously expected. After two years of debt-addition and extreme price inflation in homes and corporate securities (equities and...
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine into its second week, the economic fallout is gradually coming into focus. In our view, it is highly likely that economic growth will slow in the US and globally, but less so in the U.S. We expect market volatility to remain elevated for an...