A Tighter 2026/27 Corn Market Suggests Prices Have Bottomed

2025-12-09 15:29:00 ET

By Warren Patterson , Head of Commodities Strategy

Record US corn output weighs on the market

The US will produce a record corn crop in the 2025/26 season, with farmers expanding corn acreage as they cut soybean acreage due to the escalation in trade tensions with China. Record acreage, along with record yields this season, means that the US will produce more than 425m tonnes of corn, up more than 12% YoY and eclipsing the previous record of 390m tonnes in 2023/24. The large crop is also expected to see the 2025/26 season ending with almost 55m tonnes of stocks, the highest level since the 2018/19 season. The bearish domestic balance in the US has put pressure on CBOT corn for much of the year, a trend that is likely to continue into early next year....

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