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2023-04-01 05:31:00 ET Summary The Fed added a gargantuan sum to its balance sheet in March, netting an increase of $324B. As the Fed defines it, the balance sheet increase in March was not QE because it did not buy Treasuries. The inverted yield curve is the clearest sign a r...
2023-03-31 06:30:00 ET Summary Slower growth and tighter financial conditions could mean a lower terminal rate and bring forward the timing of the first rate cut. While front-end yields have declined in recent weeks, they are still near multi-decade highs and may remain here as in...
2023-03-28 03:25:00 ET Summary Over the past year, bonds and mortgage-backed securities dropped in value as central banks hiked base rates in the banking system - that’s interest rate risk. The sound ones also rebound in value as central banks pause and then start cutting r...
2023-03-27 06:06:08 ET Summary DMO is invested in mortgages, both residential and commercial MBS, as well as other mortgage-related debt securities. With all the uncertainty, a wider discount could be appropriate as credit risks become a real issue. At the same time, we are no...
2023-03-22 01:51:00 ET Summary Across fixed income, the effects on credit markets have been acute. There's some volatility that might be exacerbated around maybe the lower quality end of the housing market as well as the commercial market. The crisis hasn't been averted yet. I...
2023-03-13 05:00:00 ET Summary Some of the issues at SVB are shared by almost all banks. Most local banks hold loans to maturity so they are carrying them at cost. Stocks fell early in the week as short-term rates rose and another rate hike was priced in based on Powell’...
2023-03-07 14:00:00 ET Summary U.S. Agency Mortgages slumped after a promising start to the new year, as rising Vols detracted from embedded call structures like MBS. MBS issuance has taken a nosedive the past year plus, as rising rates, falling refinances and limited repeat busin...
Summary The duration of the Fed’s mortgage-backed portfolio has lengthened enormously since the positions were originally acquired by the Fed. Those mortgages are at very low interest rates; hence, the recent rise in rates means the amount of refinancing has dropped to minimal le...
Summary The January Effect boosted the valuation of most areas of the closed-end fund market. Taxable bond CEFs have rallied strongly while leaving munis behind. We think this is an opportunity for investors for 2023, as credit spreads are likely to widen, dragging down taxable bond NAV...
Summary One of the phrases making the rounds among the financial media chatterboxes this week has been “no landing”. The macro news has indeed given some cause for cheer relative to some of the more dour scenarios we’ve been looking at in the past few months. Wh...
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2024-06-12 19:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-12 04:50:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-02 20:02:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...