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Summary It is hard to determine sometimes what causes markets to move as they do. Take last Friday’s stock market selloff. The widely cited “reason” for the selloff was Jerome Powell’s speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium. Of the major ...
Summary The housing market is weird. Sales are slowing, and home builders are calling it a recession. US home prices grew at an unprecedented rate during the pandemic when the Fed's QE program aimed to bring mortgage spreads down. Homeowners are less leveraged than they were g...
A simple linear regression shows that changes in mortgage rates have an inverse relationship with changes in new home sales. The correlation between changes in mortgage rates and new home sales isn't as strong as you might think. There's still quite a lot of noise in the underlyin...
Mortgage balances jumped by 9% in Q2 from a year ago, as prices spiked year over year, while people bought far fewer homes. HELOCs’ decline has ended and balances ticked up in Q2 to $319 billion, from the low in the prior quarter. This has occurred as mortgage rates have spiked...
The U.S. MBS agency market had another bounce-back outing in July, alternating good and bad months since the start of 2022. Real money accounts require a somewhat calmer setting, and Asian investors are quiet as the U.S. dollar continues to trounce all other currencies. Year to da...
Now, most recently, the Russian war with Ukraine and its shock to energy and commodity markets, at a time when inflation was already running hot, has added greatly to investor concerns. While retirement planners and long-term liability managers often need to take on duration to hedge ...
The S&P 500 rallied 4.3% (down 13.3% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 3.0% (down 9.6%). The Banks gained 2.1% (down 18.0%), and the Broker/Dealers recovered 4.8% (down 11.0%). The Transports advanced 5.8% (down 11.3%). Investment-grade bond funds posted outflows of $2.442 billion, whi...
Today, the US economy can be characterized by late cycle (perhaps even end cycle) with a stagflationary regime. A stagflationary regime is one where there is high and rising inflation combined with low or negative growth. Investing during this regime can be difficult. Eventually, ...
On Thursday the Fed raised rates by another 75bps and reiterated its commitment to Quantitative Tightening. Over the last two months, the balance sheet has fallen by $25B vs. a target of $95B. The upcoming reductions will be too little too late to have any meaningful impact on red...
Mortgage rates have climbed this year at one of the fastest paces on record. Yields on agency mortgage-backed securities have soared to 4.17% in July 2022 from 1.98% in January. The Fed’s involvement in the agency MBS market is not uniform, and certain pockets of the sector wil...
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2024-06-12 19:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-01 03:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-12 04:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...