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Mortgage rates have climbed this year at one of the fastest paces on record. Yields on agency mortgage-backed securities have soared to 4.17% in July 2022 from 1.98% in January. The Fed’s involvement in the agency MBS market is not uniform, and certain pockets of the sector wil...
Financial markets in the first six months of 2022 broke many records, all of them bad. Both stock and bond prices declined significantly during the first six months of 2022, but at the end of that period, stock prices were still 22% higher than at the beginning of the Covid Pandemic. ...
In the second quarter, we've seen double-digit negative returns across the fixed income landscape. For corporate bonds on the investment-grade side of things, we've seen spreads tick 160. A lot of what's going on right now is just the aftermath of a pandemic that's disrupted the h...
The coming recession: Deep or shallow? Markets pricing in rate cut in 2023. Overly optimistic? Will 2023 be the rebound year for bonds? The risk of recession grows as the U.S. Fed continues its war against inflation. Michael Craig, Head of Asset Allocation, TDAM ...
Although mortgage rates have stabilized a bit, they remain at some of the highest levels since 2008 and have been heading marginally higher in the past week. Given the slight rise in rates, demand for mortgages continues to predict further weakness in upcoming home sales data. Not...
At the heart of this market volatility is inflation uncertainty, which results in policy uncertainty. The U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”), once the leader of “team transitory” is shifting its strategy. The May CPI upside surprise, along with the University of ...
We see a new era of volatile inflation and growth sweeping aside a period of moderation. We downgrade equities and upgrade credit in this new regime. U.S. jobs data last Friday reinforced the supply shock causing persistent inflation. Yields resumed their rise as markets priced higher...
While bond yields have steadied in recent weeks, economic and financial conditions are still not supportive of bonds resuming their role as a hedge. Until inflation really slows, bonds remain as much a source of risk as a hedge. My view is yields either need to be moderately highe...
Since the Fed first implemented its “zero interest rate policy” in the wake of the financial crisis, investors have been left with a bond market landscape that presented many challenges from an income perspective. With the dynamic duo of inflation and a Fed tightening po...
If inflation and rate increases do not rise above current market expectations, however, there is a case for longer-duration instruments. Asset allocation models are well documented across the investment universe, and portfolio diversification is a widely accepted principle. Histor...
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2024-06-12 19:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-01 03:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-12 04:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...