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Summary Active central banks may create attractive opportunities for discretionary macro managers who can take advantage of higher volatility, higher rates and dynamic policy changes. The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a large overhang across almost the entire commodity complex. ...
Summary An imminent recession is predicted by Bloomberg probability models that now forecast a 100% likelihood of a US recession hitting by October 2023, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update. Record rate hikes in 2022 have rendered the most negative 10-year...
Summary U.S. recession risks are rising and stagflation may be poised for a comeback. A strong job market has kept us from entering such an environment, but recession risks are rising as the Federal Reserve has vowed to maintain a restrictive monetary policy to rein in inflation -...
Summary For the most part, 2022 has unfolded largely on script, with inflation proving stubborn and the Federal Reserve seeking to cut off the spigot. Despite the general monetary trend toward stiff tightening on a global basis, individual countries continue to initiate moves to s...
Summary In recent months, the economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of a cyclical downturn. As such, we remain in a situation where positive economic data (i.e. resilient Q3 corporate earnings) could be considered bearish as such an outcome will delay any hope of a dovis...
Summary With inflation having soared, the Fed has shifted in 2022 to withdrawing accommodation, raising rates, and shrinking its balance sheet. As for the U.S. real economy, rate hikes hit first through their direct impact on mortgage rates. Future housing construction is like...
Summary In what was an especially turbulent month past, the MBS market recorded back-to-back underperformances for the first time all year. September fared its worst of 2022, and the worst of all time, besting July 2003’s great Refi wave (-153bps) and October 2008’s ...
Summary In the week ended September 30, demand for mortgages to purchase a home plunged by 13%, seasonally adjusted, from the already beaten-down levels in the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday. The weekly drop was in part caused by Hurricane I...
Summary The broadest measure of the bond market, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index, has returned -14.61% YTD through the end of the third quarter. All segments of the bond market have posted negative returns YTD. 2022 is shaping up to be the worst performance year in the 45-yea...
Summary Geopolitical tensions, elevated market volatility, and the fastest pace of central bank tightening in decades are contributing to an unusually uncertain economic environment. In addition to higher income potential, yields are high enough to provide the potential for capita...
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2024-06-12 19:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-01 03:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-12 04:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...