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2023-04-24 05:57:00 ET Summary The China recovery story is generating some buzz. Cooperation, integration, and alliances are seen as mutually beneficial. Policymakers almost everywhere face the predicament of elevated inflation and weakening growth prospects. It was ...
2023-04-23 03:59:00 ET Summary Financial theory teaches us that market prices are driven by the outcomes of perfectly rational creatures making split-second decisions fine-tuned to the optimal net present value alternative. There has been a distinct pattern in the bond market ever...
2023-04-20 14:07:00 ET Summary Our entire financial system revolves around credit. This includes the ability to access credit for new loans, and more importantly, the refinancing of existing loans. At the center of any credit contraction are the banks, for it is they who are the p...
2023-04-20 13:34:00 ET Summary The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio is the gold standard of portfolios. The math on the 40% slice is much cleaner. A bond aggregate is about a 5-year instrument in my All Duration model. In today’s environment, the aggregated components of a 60...
2023-04-20 02:54:00 ET Summary Managers have become less bearish on credit spreads with ~40% expecting spreads to be range-bound in the next 12 months. Inflation and the prospect of recession are the major concerns among managers. At the time of the survey close on Feb. 15, pa...
2023-04-20 01:44:00 ET Summary The US Federal Reserve could soon deliver the last hike of the current cycle. While 10Y yields have seen their peak already, it will need the imminent prospect of rate cuts to re-steepen the curves. We think cuts will come before the year ends, b...
2023-04-17 12:04:00 ET Summary The difference between junk bond yields and Treasury yields has barely budged in 12 months. The next economic crisis is always just around the corner and any isolated bad event can be spun into a dictum of doom. Non-US stocks continue to outperfo...
2023-04-17 10:30:00 ET Summary The joint stock-bond rally this year has put renewed focus on portfolio construction approaches. We think a new macro regime needs a new approach. U.S. stocks rose last week but lost steam on Friday on the market partly pricing out potential rate cut...
2023-04-17 03:00:00 ET Summary With bank lending tightening, it seems prudent for the Fed to hit the pause button. Markets are conditioned for loose conditions, expecting Fed loosening measures to reverse any meaningful tightening. Money is perceived as a liquid and stable sto...
2023-04-16 06:15:00 ET Summary Earnings season has started and so far, the banks have delivered better-than-feared results. This has caused the market to start repricing the path of monetary policy. Rate cuts are being removed from the equation. With signs of the ban...
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2024-05-02 16:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-12 23:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-24 00:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...