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2023-06-27 03:05:00 ET Summary Striking the right balance between interest-rate and credit risk can be a good idea in the late stages of a credit cycle. We think it’s a particularly good idea in this credit cycle. Why? Consider that over the last 18 months, investors have g...
2023-06-26 21:42:00 ET Summary The bedrock of the asset allocation process is to create strategic allocations that work over the longer term, while then modifying those positions in response to the market realities. Some of what we have seen during 2023 has been due to exuberance ...
2023-06-26 07:00:00 ET Summary Persistent inflation is forcing central bankers to tighten more forcefully, risking a surge in yields and associated market and economic instability. Persistent inflation is forcing central bankers to tighten more forcefully, risking a surge in yield...
2023-06-22 10:45:00 ET Summary Fed funds futures continue to lean toward a one-and-done scenario, based on the highest estimated probability estimates for the next three Fed meetings. A simple model using unemployment and consumer prices to profile Fed policy suggests that a moder...
2023-06-22 03:11:00 ET Summary The new Powell arithmetic: The Fed and the rates market believe that policy is restrictive. But uncertainty remains as the Fed signaled additional hikes and bond markets have priced in a higher probability of additional “insurance” hikes be...
2023-06-22 00:30:00 ET Summary The Fed held rates steady in June but projected two more rate hikes before the end of the year. The ECB hiked rates and made it clear that there’s more work to be done in the inflation fight. Japan maintained its accommodative policy, whil...
2023-06-21 19:55:00 ET Summary Throughout this Fed rate hike cycle, there always seemed to be some sort of disconnect between what the policy makers were saying and what the money and bond markets were thinking. At various times, you got the sense it was a case of either “d...
2023-06-20 17:00:00 ET Summary Pandemic fiscal stimulus in 2020 and 2021 created huge annual budget deficits in excess of 10% of GDP. While the debt ceiling compromise set caps on U.S. government spending in various categories, many of the details of how spending would be rearrang...
2023-06-20 09:45:00 ET Summary Sticky inflation is leading major central banks to keep policy tight. We prefer emerging market debt as policy loosens and like short-dated bonds for income. Developed market short-term bond yields jumped after central banks signaled more rate hikes ...
2023-06-20 09:30:00 ET Summary The data has been coming in strong enough that the Fed could have delivered a rate hike in Wednesday’s meeting, but they chose not to. In the last couple of weeks, jobless claims have not just been higher than expected claims, but we're seeing...
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2024-05-02 16:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-12 23:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-24 00:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...