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2024-04-08 09:00:00 ET Summary Looking forward, our base case is that the Fed engineers a soft landing and starts to normalize policy rates in the second half of the year. In recent quarters, large-cap technology has outperformed in both higher and lower rate regimes. The weig...
2024-04-06 01:35:00 ET Summary As diligently as everyone is looking for signs of a consumer slowdown, the numbers keep telling us that household spending continues apace. The labor market is not showing signs of slowing. Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics s...
2024-04-05 08:25:00 ET Summary By January 2025, the Federal Reserve is likely to be in an easing cycle, which may benefit the market regardless of who wins the election. A recent quote from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about the Fed, inflation, and confidence was music to my ears...
2024-04-05 07:05:00 ET Summary Every firm is expecting rate cuts anticipating a recession but there is no recession in sight. Employment has been rising with some believing the numbers are manipulated because they believed the PMI was literally screaming recession. Expectation...
2024-04-04 08:45:00 ET Summary The fundamental outlook for bonds remains questionable at best. The leading indicators of growth and inflation for 2024 suggest both dynamics could put upside pressure on yields. Sentiment toward bonds remains bullish as the consensus is for yiel...
2024-04-03 09:20:00 ET Summary Markets are still pricing in moderate odds that easing will start at the end of the second quarter, but the incoming data is providing more support for again pushing the date for a dovish policy pivot further down the road. The caveat is that the 2-y...
2024-04-03 03:20:00 ET Summary After a sharp decline in yield during Q4 2023, Treasury yields rose during Q1 2024. We experienced significant increases in 10- and 30-year Treasuries, as they rose 31 bps to 4.19% and 30.6 bps to 4.336%, respectively. Spreads on investment-grade...
2024-04-02 14:15:00 ET Summary Yields have surged across fixed income in the new regime. In Q2, we stay nimble and selective, preferring short-term sovereign bonds and high yield credit. The S&P 500 jumped 10% in Q1 even as bond yields rose on markets pricing out rate cuts. In...
2024-04-02 12:20:00 ET Summary Mounting pressures from macro megaforces point toward higher structural inflation and lower real GDP growth in the years ahead. We think higher inflation and slower economic growth will reverberate across the global fixed-income markets, shaping how ...
2024-04-02 07:36:00 ET Summary Markets continue to experience heightened volatility as participants pay close attention to every new economic data point, trying to divine the timing of the first central bank rate cuts. But investors who are overly focused on data surprises may los...
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2024-05-02 16:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-12 23:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-24 00:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...