Outlook for Manulife Stock in 2026

2026-02-02 20:15:00 ET

This year will move fast, so investors need a simple way to judge any stock’s outlook before the crowd does. Start with the business model and ask where the cash really comes from. Then check the balance sheet, because strong companies survive ugly years and still invest . Next, connect the stock to the economic cycle and interest rates, since those forces can lift or crush results.

Finally, compare the valuation to realistic growth and list the risks that could break the thesis. Watch currency moves, because it reports a lot in U.S. dollars. So today, let’s look where this dividend stock lies.

MFC

Manulife Financial ( TSX:MFC ) gives Canadians exposure to a global insurer and wealth manager without leaving the TSX. It sells life and health insurance, runs retirement and wealth products, and manages assets for individuals and institutions. That mix matters for 2026 because earnings do not rely on a single market. Canada can deliver steady cash, the U.S. can add scale, and Asia can add faster growth when it wins new customers.

News over the last year reminded investors that insurance still comes with quarterly drama. In August 2025, it pointed to elevated credit and mortality losses in the U.S., and noted core earnings of $0.95 per share for the second quarter, a touch below analyst expectations. One quarter does not define the dividend stock, but it can shake confidence and pressure the share price when investors fear a trend.

Manulife also spent the year nudging its story toward growth and tighter execution. It announced a refreshed enterprise strategy in November 2025, and management reiterated a path to 18% or higher core return on equity (ROE) that it plans to support with profit growth and share buybacks. It leaned into private credit through the acquisition of Comvest Credit Partners. Private credit adds fee income and spread income that can stay steadier when markets wobble. It also backed a new life-insurance joint venture with Mahindra & Mahindra, with management guiding to a 15- to 18-month launch timeline.

Earnings support

Earnings put some muscle behind that narrative. In the third quarter of 2025, Manulife reported core earnings of $2 billion and net income for common shareholders of $1.8 billion. Core earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.16, and EPS came in at $1.02. It also posted an 18.1% core ROE, which signals a capital buffer heading into 2026.

The quarter also showed what to watch in 2026, beyond the headline profit. Manulife grew new business momentum, with sales up 8% and new business CSM up 25% in 3Q25, which can feed future earnings during policies season. On the other hand, Global Wealth and Asset Management reported net outflows of $6.2 billion in the quarter. Net inflows would signal stronger product demand and could lift fee income through 2026. If that line stays negative, fee growth can stall even when insurance performs well.

The valuation looks fair for a big financial that can compound, but it does not look like a giveaway. Recent valuation data shows the dividend stock trading at 16.9 times earnings, with a price-to-book around 2. The dividend adds appeal, with an annual payout of $1.76 and a yield around 3.4%. Buybacks and dividend growth matter, because they raise per-share value even when the market feels moody.

Bottom line

So, could Manulife be a buy for 2026? It can fit if you want a steadier ride with a real dividend and a management team that sets clear targets. Right now, in fact, here’s what $7,000 could bring in.

Strong capital and recent core profitability support that case. Still, respect the risks. U.S. claims can swing, markets can hit fee income, and outflows can dull the growth story. If you accept those trade-offs, watch the next earnings release on Feb. 11, 2026. I would buy only on weakness, and I would demand proof that outflows are easing.

The post Outlook for Manulife Stock in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Canada .

Fool contributor Amy Legate-Wolfe has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .

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