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Summary Fed anticipates job losses and they usually cut as the job market is transitioning from job creation to job loss. Housing is the most interest rate-sensitive part of the economy. If the Fed needs to hike more than what’s being anticipated that higher dividend will hel...
Summary A mild recession is coming in the US. Unemployment and migration trends are shifting. How will these factors play out across different states and regions? In 2022, 28 states registered a record low unemployment rate, as demographic trends and pandemic-related disruptions continu...
Summary On a rolling 3-month basis, the decline in mortgage rates continues to rank as some of the largest since the late 1990s. Given the alleviation on the rates front, purchase applications have been rebounding. The 68% month-over-month increase in applications has been the large...
Summary Markets posted strong gains in January, but will it last? Impact of China's reopening on global markets. Is this the year for a rebound in fixed income? Global markets have had a positive start to the year. But the year ahead likely won’t be withou...
Summary Going by most observers, there have been two major housing bubbles in the 21st Century. The inflation phase for the first housing bubble had its origins in August 2000 and peaked in March 2007. This more recent bubble has had several phases, but using the measure of median n...
Summary Data revisions affecting median new home sale prices and median household income confirm October 2022 as the all-time record low for the affordability of new homes in the U.S. Mortgage payment on the median new home sold in the U.S. during December 2022 would consume 41.6% of th...
Summary ABR is one of the best run mortgage REITs, largely by remaining focused on the defensive real estate sector of multifamily. Management is skilled, long-tenured, and shareholder-aligned, with 12% insider ownership of common stock. ABR certainly faces risks in the face of a li...
Summary After a year best forgotten, 2023 has started out with a bang. January was a strong month that gave equity investors a timely relief rally. While this was a welcomed development, I am concerned that equity prices are getting too disconnected from reality. We have a challenging m...
Summary A deep dive into the gritty data and formulas of the vacancy rates by the Census Bureau. The Census Bureau estimated that in Q4 2022, the rental vacancy rate dipped to 5.8% and that the homeowner housing vacancy rate dipped to 0.8%, matching the record low earlier in 2022. T...
Summary The housing/construction sector is dragging strongly on economic growth. Right now, only the single-family market is dragging on growth. The downturn in multi-family and residential remodeling construction is still on the way. Leading indicators of housing/construction have ...
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2024-05-02 22:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-13 06:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...