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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to 0.27 in July, with all four categories of indicators rising. The 3-month average was unchanged at -0.09. That indicates growth is slightly below trend and is far from the recession threshold of -0.7. The data in August so far has bee...
A new survey by PwC says 50% of employers plan layoffs. Signs of a U.S. manufacturing recession are appearing in Fed (Federal Reserve Bank of the U.S.) regional reports. The real estate sector, a major driver of economic growth, is slowing. Non-bank mortgage lenders are filing for...
Equity markets have clearly taken notice of rising inflation - and not in a good way. Conventional wisdom has traditionally said different things about how equities and bonds should behave in an inflationary environment - some hold to the notion that stocks should be protected from hi...
The problem for bonds is that German inflation can easily cross the ocean due to oil and natural gas supply tightening further as US producers export LNG and crude oil to Europe in search of higher spot prices. West Texas Intermediate Crude and US Natural Gas had a volatile week. ...
Strong data or not, the Fed will likely stay the course on rates. Why inflation is still the Fed's biggest concern, even as it eases. Why the robust jobs market didn't get the recession memo. Stronger U.S. economic data is leading to speculation the U.S. Federal ...
We can’t actually see the present because there is a lag between the information being captured by our eyes and processed by our brains. The rising dollar, rising rate environment are well known and entrenched at this point. There are still some problems we have to get past...
Interest rate volatility has been high, and rotations between value and growth in equities have been sharp. Over the past few decades, a recession was generally accompanied by a decline in earnings and a sell-off in equity markets, because a non-inflationary recession meant lower nomi...
The market is in the process of a healthy pullback from a technically overbought condition. The bears are pounding their chests, convinced we will take out the June lows. The improvement in market fundamentals and the macroeconomic landscape argues otherwise. A phenomena...
The main economic report of the week ahead will be the preliminary estimate of the August PMI. The policy implications are not as obvious as they may seem. The UK's composite PMI fell in three of the four months through July. However, at 52.1, it remains above the boom/bust level, tho...
Risk off had attained powerful momentum globally back in July. De-risking/deleveraging dynamics were increasingly fomenting illiquidity, contagion and instability across global markets. The S&P500 ended the session with a year-to-date loss of 20%. The Nasdaq100 was down 28%, while...