AI Is Resetting the Rules of Growth in CPG
MWN-AI** Summary
NielsenIQ (NIQ), in collaboration with Kearney, has released "The New Growth Frontier," revealing how artificial intelligence (AI) is significantly transforming the consumer packaged goods (CPG) sector. The analysis highlights a notable trend where challenger brands have increased their U.S. market share by 1.5 percentage points over the past three years, while large and mid-sized national brands have seen a decline of 2.1 percentage points. This evolution indicates that while scale remains important, agility, precision, and effective visibility in AI-driven discovery environments are now critical for competitive advantage.
Marta Cyhan-Bowles, NIQ's Chief Communications Officer, emphasizes that traditional growth strategies such as mergers and acquisitions are becoming less reliable. Instead, brands must adapt by focusing on consumer-led innovation and enhancing discoverability in a rapidly changing landscape. AI's democratizing effect allows smaller brands, traditionally quicker and more responsive to trends, to leverage tools like concept testing and optimization for enhanced product innovation.
AI is also redefining how consumers conduct research and make purchasing decisions. With 74% of shoppers utilizing AI for product discovery and a significant rise in the use of AI assistants in retail settings, discoverability has become as crucial as supply chain distribution. Emerging trends in "agentic commerce" illustrate how AI influences product rankings and recommendations based on relevance, making it essential for brands to ensure their products are clearly represented in these algorithms.
Overall, the convergence of AI in innovation and consumer discovery requires that both established and emerging brands rethink their approaches to maintain relevance and ensure sustainable growth in this evolving marketplace.
MWN-AI** Analysis
The recent analysis by NielsenIQ (NIQ) and Kearney presents a significant shift in the Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) landscape, driven predominantly by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI). As indicated in the report, challenger brands have gained a notable edge, capturing an additional 1.5 percentage points in market share while established brands have faced a 2.1-point decline. This transition suggests that traditional growth strategies relying on scale and mergers are becoming less effective.
For investors and market participants, the key takeaway is the importance of agility and precision in leveraging AI for innovation and consumer engagement. Brands that prioritize deep consumer understanding and optimize their product attributes for discoverability are better positioned in the evolving retail environment. The analysis emphasizes that AI is democratizing access to tools that were once exclusive to larger corporations, allowing smaller brands to compete on a more level playing field.
Challenger brands are successfully using AI to accelerate product development and align offerings with consumer trends in sectors like Pet Care and Health & Wellness. As more consumers turn to AI for product discovery—74% reported using AI tools for this purpose—brands must adapt their marketing and distribution strategies accordingly.
Emerging brands should focus on optimizing their digital presence to ensure that their products rank well within AI-mediated discovery channels. For larger brands, modernizing innovation pipelines and integrating AI into their processes is crucial for maintaining market relevance.
In conclusion, the convergence of AI-driven innovation and discovery necessitates a strategic re-evaluation for all CPG players. Brands that can swiftly adjust to these changes—grounding their initiatives in genuine consumer needs—will be poised for success in this new competitive landscape.
**MWN-AI Summary and Analysis is based on asking OpenAI to summarize and analyze this news release.
NIQ and Kearney analysis finds challenger brands gaining share as AI reshapes innovation and product discovery
NielsenIQ (NYSE: NIQ), a global leader in consumer intelligence, today released The New Growth Frontier. This new analysis, produced in collaboration with Kearney, reveals that artificial intelligence is reshaping how consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands innovate and compete—with profound effects on innovation, product discovery, and consumer path to purchase.
Over the past three years, established niche brands increased US market share by 1.5 percentage points (2022–2025), while large and mid-size national brands declined by 2.1 percentage points, according to NIQ retail measurement data across all categories.
This data signals a structural shift: Scale remains powerful, but scale is no longer destiny. Competitive advantage increasingly depends on agility, precision, and the ability to surface effectively in AI-mediated discovery environments.
“We are entering a precision era in CPG,” said Marta Cyhan-Bowles, Chief Communications Officer and Global Head of Marketing, NIQ . “The growth levers that larger brands have come to rely on—like mergers and acquisitions—are no longer reliable paths to sustainable, long-term growth. Consumer-led innovation and agentic discoverability now matter more than historical scale. The winners will be those who combine AI-driven speed with deep consumer understanding, agentic systems proficiency, and disciplined measurement.”
AI Is Equalizing Opportunity Across the Industry
AI is democratizing capabilities that once required significant investment—from concept testing and formulation optimization to creative iteration and scenario modelling. Challenger brands are leveraging these tools to boost their historical strengths: moving more quickly, leading digitally, and leaning into meaningful consumer trends. NIQ data shows emerging brands are winning in categories where AI-led innovation and discovery are accelerating, such as Pet Care, Personal Care, and Health & Wellness.
At the same time, consumer behavior is shifting rapidly. NIQ research shows:
- 74% of shoppers are using AI for some form of product discovery
- 54% use AI for research
- 20% use AI directly for shopping
As AI tools increasingly mediate research and purchase decisions, discoverability has become as important as distribution.
Agentic Commerce Is Reshaping Discovery
The analysis also highlights the rise of agentic commerce—retail and large-language model (LLM) environments where AI systems filter options, generate recommendations, and influence purchasing decisions.
AI assistants are increasingly embedded in retailer websites, search tools, and shopping platforms, changing how products are surfaced and ranked. In these environments, structured product attributes, contextual alignment, reviews, and trust signals play a growing role in determining visibility—with relevance to consumer goals ultimately influencing results.
“AI systems prioritize clarity and relevance,” said Katherine Black, Partner at Kearney . “Brands that ensure their products are legible to AI with structured data, defined need states, and credible signals are better positioned to surface in these new discovery pathways.”
Traditional Growth Levers Face New Pressure
As AI reshapes both innovation and discovery, traditional growth strategies are under pressure. Line extensions often redistribute share rather than expand categories, and acquisitions are becoming more complex in a market defined by shifting consumer expectations and AI-accelerated competition.
While M&A can complement innovation, it is no longer a reliable standalone path to durable growth. In an environment where discoverability and early traction determine success, brands must build relevance—not simply buy it.
Why It Matters
The convergence of AI-driven innovation and AI-mediated discovery is raising the bar across the CPG ecosystem:
- Large, established brands must modernize and refocus innovation pipelines to maintain momentum.
- Emerging brands can leverage AI to accelerate experimentation and trial.
- Retailers must adapt as AI integrations influence traffic, assortment, and monetization dynamics.
The analysis concludes that sustainable growth in the AI era will depend on:
- Grounding innovation in validated, unmet consumer needs
- Optimizing product content for AI-driven discovery
- Integrating AI strategically across ideation, testing, and activation
- Monitoring early launch signals and adjusting quickly
With operations spanning more than 90 countries and approximately $7.2 trillion (USD) in global consumer spend, NIQ combines structured retail data, behavioral intelligence, and advanced analytics to help brands align AI acceleration with real consumer demand.
The full analysis is available here.
About NIQ:
NielsenIQ (NIQ) is a leading consumer intelligence company, delivering the most complete understanding of consumer buying behavior and revealing new pathways to growth. Our global reach spans over 90 countries covering approximately 85% of the world’s population and more than $7.2 trillion in global consumer spend. With a holistic retail read and the most comprehensive consumer insights—delivered with advanced analytics through state-of-the-art platforms—NIQ delivers the Full View™. For more information, please visit niq.com .
About Kearney:
For 100 years, Kearney has been a leading management consulting firm and trusted partner to three-quarters of the Fortune Global 500 and governments around the world. With a presence across more than 40 countries, our people make us who we are. We work impact first, tackling your toughest challenges with original thinking and a commitment to making change happen together. By your side, we deliver—value, results, impact.
Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer
This press release regarding NIQ and Kearney analysis, may contain forward-looking statements regarding anticipated consumer behaviors, market trends, and industry developments. These statements reflect current expectations and projections based on available data, historical patterns, and various assumptions. Words such as “expects,” “anticipates,” “projects,” “believes,” “forecasts,” “plan,” “look ahead,” and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future outcomes and are subject to inherent uncertainties, including changes in consumer preferences, economic conditions, technological advancements, and competitive dynamics. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. While we strive to base our insights on reliable data and sound methodologies, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect future events or circumstances, except to the extent required by applicable law.
© 2026 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.
NIQ-GENERAL
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260303658950/en/
Media Contact:
NIQ: media.relations@niq.com
Kearney: Meir Kahtan, Meir Kahtan Public Relations, mkahtan@rcn.com | +1 917-864-0800
FAQ**
How does the rise of challenger brands, as highlighted in the NIQ and Kearney analysis, impact the investment strategy for Nuveenn Intermediate Duration Quality Municipal Term Fund of Beneficial Interest NIQ in the consumer packaged goods sector?
With AI reshaping product discovery, what specific actions can the Nuveenn Intermediate Duration Quality Municipal Term Fund of Beneficial Interest NIQ take to evaluate the implications for its portfolio companies in the CPG market?
Given the structural shifts in market share noted in the NIQ report, what metrics should the Nuveenn Intermediate Duration Quality Municipal Term Fund of Beneficial Interest NIQ consider when assessing the performance of established versus emerging brands?
How can the findings from the NIQ and Kearney analysis on AI-driven innovation influence the Nuveenn Intermediate Duration Quality Municipal Term Fund of Beneficial Interest NIQ's future investment decisions in technology adoption among CPG brands?
**MWN-AI FAQ is based on asking OpenAI questions about Nuveenn Intermediate Duration Quality Municipal Term Fund of Beneficial Interest (NYSE: NIQ).
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