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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is poised to cut the policy rate at its meeting on July 30-31, but members of the committee are divided. Markets are pricing a 25 basis point (bp) cut, and we believe that is the most likely outcome, but we also see a meaningful chance of a 50 bp cut. ...
June consumption was strong, while production was weak Tuesday morning's retail sales and industrial production releases for June are consistent with my take that the consumer sector of the economy is doing OK, while the production sector remains in trouble. Let's start with retail sales...
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While listening to Fed Chairman Powell's Humphrey Hawkins testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday of last week, I noticed his response to a question asking if we had gone past the point of no return regarding our national debt of $22,489,174,200,900. He was quick to point out this ye...
By Bluford Putnam On June 30, 2019, the current economic expansion tied the old record from the Clinton decade of 40 quarters, and as each month passes without a recession, it will be setting new records for duration (although not strength, but that is another story, for another report). ...
After a brief summer vacation and now catching up on some market research, recent fund flow data caught my eye. In this week's ICI fund and ETF flow/issuance report , equity outflows totaled a sizable $28.8 billion. Of this amount, $25.2 billion represents outflows from U.S. domestic funds an...
This week may have marked the end of the vaunted "everything rally", and that wouldn't necessarily be a negative development. In the US, equities of course pressed to new highs, helped along by Jerome Powell's testimony on Capitol Hill, where the Fed chair essentially confirmed that a July r...
By Robert Hughes AIER's Leading Indicators index remains neutral in June; policy remains biggest risk AIER's Leading Indicators index was unchanged in June, holding at the neutral reading of 50. The Lagging Indicators index was also unchanged in the latest month, repeating the May result...
US Fed Chair Jerome Powell stoked hopes for imminent rate cuts on Wednesday, acknowledging that global growth remains far below the Fed's forecasts in 2019. While large-cap shares levitated on prospects of a further reduction in borrowing rates, other economically sensitive markets like smal...
The jobs report one month ago was poor, so as expected, the JOLTS report for May, released this morning, followed suit. To review, because this series is only 20 years old, we only have one full business cycle to compare. During the 2000s expansion: Hires peaked first, from December 2004...
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2024-05-25 19:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-15 20:16:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-06 13:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...