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2023-10-30 15:25:00 ET Summary Tectonic shifts in the U.S. financial sector are changing the markets for deposits and credit. This is a mega force we see affecting returns now and in the future. U.S. stocks hit five-month lows and 10-year Treasury yields rose above 5% last week. Q...
2023-10-30 07:45:20 ET This week's FOMC announcement on interest rates would typically be the big-name event for investors, but not this time around. While a Fed hike in December is up for debate, no one expects the central bank to raise rates this week, especially given recent economic dat...
2023-10-28 02:10:00 ET Summary Holding a tactical allocation to cash is less painful today than in the past due to high short-term interest rates. However, at some point, the Fed will cut rates, which will introduce reinvestment risk for investors holding T-bills. For investor...
2023-10-24 08:41:00 ET Related stories The Budget Deficit: Increasing At A Challenging Pace, And The Impact On TLT Fed Focus, Loving + Hating Earnings Season, Bonds Competing With Stocks U.S. Treasury returns set for worst month this year; Ackman short bet pays off ...
2023-10-24 03:21:00 ET Summary While some argue that inflation remains a concern in 2023, it certainly is trending in the right direction. The consensus is that 2023 will witness a small decline in corporate earnings but then improve again as we move into Q4 and 2024. Credit s...
2023-10-23 11:05:00 ET Summary Yields on the US 10-year are up nearly 150bp since April, within touching distance of 5%, and 30-year yields are now just over 5%, up from 3.7% in April. The two-year yield is up just 100bp over the same period. The yield curve has bear-steepened by ...
2023-10-18 20:55:00 ET Summary With all the attention given to the recent surge in Treasury (UST) yields, there has been an interesting by-product in the process: steepening yield curves. Remember when inverted yield curves were all the rage, and their historical track record was ...
2023-10-16 05:18:00 ET Summary According to Morningstar, the iShares TLT’s SEC yield, is 4.85%, while the 12-month yield is 3.57%, thus splitting the difference on the TLT yield puts the average around 4.2%. The flip side of the Treasury valuation argument is that the Treas...
2023-10-14 03:55:00 ET Summary The risk of a crisis event in the economy is increasing, as the Fed’s "higher for longer" narrative is compromised by lagging economic data. The yield curve inversions occur roughly 10-24 months before a recession or crisis event. This is beca...
2023-10-11 01:05:00 ET Summary Over the past 12 months industrial production has been flat and the ISM Manufacturing Report has been warning of imminent recession. Despite the warnings from reliable leading indicators, the dominant view now is that there will be a “soft lan...
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2024-04-13 17:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-03 19:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-14 16:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...