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Nina Karnaukh of Ohio State sent along this lovely graph of the 6-month Fed Funds futures around the beginning of August. Read this as the market's guess about what is happening to the Federal Funds rate over the next 6 months. The first drop in price occurs with the FOMC announcement at 2 P...
It was nearly five years ago, in late 2014, that I wrote a piece titled, " Here's Why The Long Bond Could Be About To Blast Off ." At the time, I argued that the combination of relative value and extreme negative sentiment was very constructive for bond prices. And it wasn't long before this i...
My first day on Wall Street. It is breathtaking, just breathtaking. Never before, ever, in the history of the world, going back over 2,000 years, has there ever been negative yielding debt before. For millennia, the debtor paid the lender interest to receive money. "Different this Time," doe...
While most of the economics profession seems to assume that a Fed cut in interest rates means money is getting easier, policy has dramatically tightened in recent weeks. Perhaps the most startling data point is the expected level of interest rates in the Fed Funds futures market , which has...
During what was variously described as a disastrous press conference on Wednesday, Jerome Powell said trade tensions nearly "boiled over" in May and June but "returned to a simmer" in July. The Fed Chair made a number of mistakes over the course of his press conference, and that was one of t...
On July 31, the FOMC decided to reduce its short-term interest rate target by 25 bps. It was a move in the right direction (as I suggested in late May), but as today's market action demonstrated, it was an overly cautious move, particularly in light of escalating global trade tensions (i.e.,...
By Sonal Desai, Ph.D., Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income The US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark short-term interest rate for the first time in 11 years in what Chairman Jerome Powell called a "mid-cycle adjustment" to sustain the U...
Disclaimer: This report contains strategies that could be risky for certain investors and is presented as research for further investigation. As always, you are trading and committing capital at your own risk. Current Silver Market Outlook Multiple analysts are reporting the presence o...
Both food and energy expenditures as a share of total personal consumption are at or near record lows. When combined together, they are at a record low for the first half of 2019. Between a very strong dollar and lack of any major supply disruptions in both food and energy, the skies are qui...
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to trim interest rates today, and the prospect of low and possibly lower inflation in the months ahead is a key factor. The Treasury market's implied inflation forecast is hinting at the possibility that pricing pressure may be set for a new downturn. T...
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2024-08-02 17:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-13 17:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-03 19:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...