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By Eric Winograd With the global economy facing stronger headwinds, we've reduced our global growth and interest rate expectations . But the US Federal Reserve has a variety of policy tools it could use - some unconventional - that we think will help the US economy hold up better than som...
What's really at stake when an investor lends money at a particular rate of interest is what the rate of inflation will be over the same period of time as the life of the bond. If the investor believes credit growth is drying up and will be very low, then inflation is likely to be low, and i...
By Robert Hughes The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in August and is up 1.7 percent from a year ago. The volatile food and energy components had contrasting results, with food prices unchanged for the month, while energy prices fell 1.9 percent. In the food category, prices for food...
One of the most remarkable features of our current economy is that interest rates are flat or negative in real terms, and many people are advocating they need to, or should, go lower. This is not completely unprecedented. Real rates were negative after the second World War and again in the 197...
The BCI at 257.1is up from last week's downward revised 256.6, and remains below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 91.9. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 10.2 is below last week’s downward revised 10.4. Both BCIp and BCIg are not si...
By Blu Putnam At a Glance Core inflation in the United States has been stuck in a narrow range for 25 years. With changing demographics and more price transparency, the Federal Reserve has less impact on the inflation rate than in past eras. Inflation is subdued, and there is not...
Originally published on August 30, 2019 By Scott Bauer At a Glance China-U.S. Trade War, Hong Kong unrest and Fed policy have been tailwinds for the yellow metal. 10-year yields below 1.5 percent and the dollar decline versus the yen are also bullish signs for gold. Why does ...
Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on September 10, 2019. [This blog post is an excerpt from a commentary published at TSI on 1st September 2019.] It’s well known that the US$ gold price often trends in the opposite direction to the US real interest rate. This...
As global uncertainty accelerates around the world, constantly lowering growth expectations, global yields have been plunging since the end of last year with the 10Y US down from 3.2% in early November to 1.6% on Friday. We saw that global sentiment has been significantly deteriorating with th...
The Federal Reserve has ended its efforts to “normalize” its balance sheet. That is, the Fed has now moved on to the next stage of its operations. It has stopped reducing the size of its securities portfolio and now is focusing almost entirely on what it should do with interest...
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2024-08-02 17:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-13 17:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-03 19:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...