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We believe raising portfolio resilience via government bonds is crucial amid elevated macro uncertainty. Scott Thiel explains. Recent weak economic data has raised market concerns that economic gloom might be spreading beyond the manufacturing sector. Worries that the drag on economic acti...
The second most frustrating aspect of trying to analyze global shadow money is how the term "shadow" really applies in this case. It's not really because banks are being sneaky, desperately maintaining their cover for any number of illicit activities they are regularly accused of undertaking. ...
Shelter inflation moved up to 3.5% and non-shelter core CPI inflation moved down to 1.5%. Not much to add. I continue to think that the slower the Fed is to lower short-term rates, the lower they will eventually go. I still think the yield curve is effectively inverted, because the zero lower ...
Following a series of repurchase operations that were supposed to be temporary, last week Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell apparently felt that the liquidity issue had not yet been solved. As he said , "Indeed, my colleagues and I will soon announce measures to add to the supply of ...
Measuring The Backup In Interest Rates - Is This 2016? Since early September, after enjoying a historic rally, long-term Treasury rates have become increasingly volatile, rising nearly 30 basis points on the benchmark 30-year yield. Before deconstructing the move higher in Treasury rates,...
Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on Oct. 15, 2019 We regularly look at what's happening with monetary inflation around the world, but today we'll focus exclusively on the US monetary inflation rate. This is because of the recent evidence that the unusually-lo...
The Fed’s reluctant decision to flood the overnight market with cash in the coming months was surely a surprise, even for monetary policymakers. As explained in the last article , the run-up in repo rates of September was no surprise to market veterans. Repo run-ups around statement da...
Federal Reserve officials got a little “shock” in the banking week ending September 18, 2019. The reserve deposits that the commercial banks hold at Federal Reserve banks, surprisingly dropped below $1.4 trillion . This surprise caused Fed officials to go into “alert&...
Two weeks ago, many were worried about the market “bump” that the Federal Reserve had to deal with. The market disturbance came in the area of repurchase agreements and the Fed responded quickly, and, in my opinion, kept things quiet although some analysts wanted to make a bigger...
After constantly running through what the FOMC gets (very) wrong , let's give them some credit for what they got right. Though this will end up as a backhanded compliment, still. After having spent all of 2018 forecasting accelerating inflation indices, from around New Year's Day forward poli...
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2024-08-02 17:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-13 17:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-03 19:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...