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When fundamentals and technicals align, that tends to be a sweet spot for investing. In a declining margin environment, gold is likely to continue to hold up well vs broad equities, although we should expect some counter-rallies. As the economy continues to weaken, diversified hea...
After restocking inventories for two months in March and April, Comex vaults have seen more than a third of the restocking removed in May and June. Silver saw a big move into Eligible last month (8.7M ounces). Part of it was sourced from Registered, which lost 6M. With the Fed on ...
The 10-Year Note has been volatile recently as a consequence of the Fed's announcement to raise rates .75 percent. It is the biggest increase in 28 years. The Fed has been behind the curve since 2021. Now, interest rates have sharply reversed, contrary to the Fed’s expe...
In a base case of inflation moderating without a recession, silver should largely keep up with gold. Gold is an asset that generally performs well in adverse economic and financial conditions. Gold and silver are facing headwinds from higher bond yields and an appreciating U.S. do...
In order to extend the rally in the stock market, we needed good news on the inflation front, and we needed the bond market to remain well-behaved. The resulting declines late Thursday and early Friday came quickly, putting us back in a situation where a retest of the May lows seems l...
About one-third of this year’s jump in individual income tax receipts results from growth in the economy. Surprisingly, not even the CBO can explain a large portion of the tax revenue surge. The problem is, the CBO does not expect the surge in revenue to last beyond what ca...
In the wake of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the risks of nuclear conflict have become clearer both inside and outside the world of finance. While investing based on nuclear risk in the short term might be a fool’s errand, implementing the necessary risk controls across va...
A point we’ve made many times in the past is that gold and the world’s most important equity index (the S&P500 Index - SPX) are at opposite ends of a virtual investment seesaw. With regard to the gold market, the aforementioned attempts failed first and foremost beca...
Regardless of the trend gold takes from here, we expect it to test the top of the range again over the coming year, driven by inflation, a Fed policy reversal, geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar or other risk-driven events. While gold and gold stocks have come under pressure in...
Commercials have their lowest net short position in Silver since June 2019. The headline CPI is expected to remain flat at 8.3%, and the core CPI, excluding soaring energy prices, is forecast to fall again to 5.9%. The stars are aligning for Gold, Silver, and the miners, much like...
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