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Despite the recent slowdown in debt issuance, the Treasury has added more than $1T in debt during the first 7 months of the year. The Fed hiking cycle has brought the weighted average interest rate up from 1.3% to 1.53%. 23bps may not sound like much, but on a $30.6T balance, that com...
In 2017 and 2018, CBRT repatriated all its gold from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank for International Settlements, and all but 6 tonnes from BOE. Yet, in 2020 and 2021, CBRT began shipping gold back from Turkey to London, and at the end of 2021, it was holding 78 to...
Some research related to the US Federal Reserve’s recent rate increases and how gold has previously reacted to rising and falling interest rates. In 2008-09, after the initial rally phase prompted by raising rates from Apr-04 to July-06, gold collapsed as the 2008-09 GFC crisis...
Why gold hasn't benefited from higher inflation. How an aggressive Fed helped take the steam out of gold prices. What a recession might mean for gold prices. By some accounts the performance of gold this year has been a bit of a disappointment. The precious metal...
Heading into the FOMC this week, Managed Money was clearly betting on a hawkish Fed pushing gold lower. The long-term bull market continues despite the volatile gyrations of Managed Money positioning. Managed Money has absolutely hammered silver lower while Swap has been on the ot...
Gold mining supply has fallen 7% from 2016 to 2021, while silver is down 8.5%. The cost of mining gold and silver is far below the current level of prices, which should create an incentive for more investment in the sector. There don’t appear to be a lot of new mines coming...
Inventories have risen recently and there has been a lot of commentary about how this will negatively impact the economy. My brief overview of markets is that large growth stocks are still overvalued even as they led the recent rally. The sentiment about the economy is still quite...
Gold was extremely oversold when it bottomed on March 16. Gold bottomed at 1124 in December 2016 and then rose to 1369 in April 2018. If we get a higher high above 162.13 and gap up in the process, the short-term trend has turned up and the odds that the bottom is in place increas...
Gold has been moving in a trading range over the last couple of years. Gold offers attractive upside potential at the present time. A variety of forces are converging in support of the gold price going forward. Owning gold has required patience these last two years. After su...
As the gold price fell in Q2, gold ETFs lost 39t, giving back some of the strong Q1 gains. Central banks continued to buy gold. Recycling activity remained elevated compared with 2021. Gold demand softened in Q2 Despite Q2 weakness, strong first quarter ETF inflows...
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