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2023-04-04 03:08:00 ET Summary Why the banking sector fallout may require a more sober second look. What the next stage of this late-stage economic cycle might look like. Amid banking fears, are mortgages the next domino to fall? Recent fears about the bankin...
2023-03-17 06:57:12 ET Summary PFIX was a top-performing bond ETF in 2022 as interest rates increased. With the latest drop in rates, investors have a chance to re-enter PFIX at favorable relative levels. With interest rate volatility at the highest level since December 2008, ...
2023-03-13 21:01:00 ET Summary You step from the Fed and then you look around the world, there is this uncertainty associated with where we are, with this inflationary environment that every country is dealing with. Certainly from a longer perspective, given sort of the post-GFC w...
2023-03-13 15:35:00 ET Summary One of the themes I’ve been discussing lately is how inflation risk has been evolving into credit risk. The banking bust we’re seeing now was sown during COVID. The COVID boom was the inevitable blow off top of the prior 10-year bull ma...
Summary Market divergence between bulls and bears in 2023. Are markets listening to what central banks are saying about interest rates? Why perception may be worse than reality when it comes to market sentiment. There appear to be widely differing views on what 202...
Summary The TTT ETF provides -3x 1-day returns of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. The TTT ETF returned 149% in 2022. Although interest rates may still rise in the coming year, TTT will unlikely repeat 2022's stellar performance. A few weeks ago, I wrote a bearis...
Summary The Fed’s interest rate and liquidity tools are blunt instruments, particularly in a service-oriented economy. If inflation indeed moderates from here, it is likely that interest rate volatility moderates alongside it. Monetary policy has created the asset-on/asset-of...
Summary PFIX owns a portfolio of OTC swaptions that hedge rising interest rates. Interest rates appear to be reaccelerating higher as the Fed is intent on 'higher for longer' and the economy is more resilient. The BOJ surprise is also sparking the unwind of billions in carry trades ...
Summary 1 or more years of additional interest-rate duration in ‘23 vs. ‘22, to be grown over time: As central banks slow, or pause, their tightening cycles, in sympathy with slowing economic growth and inflation. 6% to 6.5% of portfolio carry potential (including anticipa...
Summary As the stock market went up the first two days of the week, more shares transacted at rising prices. A leading retail-oriented broker indicated their clients have been buying mostly corporate/municipal bonds and commodities, while selling declining US government bonds. The t...
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2024-06-23 21:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-13 22:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-02 06:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...