ITB: An Affordability Push Boosts The Seasonal Trade In Homebuilders

2026-01-13 10:19:48 ET

The 2025/2026 seasonal trade on the stocks of homebuilders started with the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF ( ITB ) in a bear market. This timing meant that the trades started at steep discounts to the S&P 500 ( SPY ) and increased the odds of outperformance by the time the seasonal trade ends sometime in the spring. However, trading in bear markets offers higher risk of loss for an extended period of time. Indeed, ITB’s bear market remains a salient component of the seasonal trade. Lower prices provided attractive opportunities for accumulation of shares but also created concerns about the potential for the trade to fail for a second year in a row....

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