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"They do have a dual mandate, Larry. They do have a dual mandate." That's what CNBC's David Faber told Larry Kudlow on April 26, after the advance read on Q1 GDP showed the US economy growing at a 3.2% clip in the first quarter. That friendly reminder from Faber was necessary because i...
As with IHS Markit and their estimations of Federal Reserve policy in the near future, we can't see any great evidence of a coming significant rise in interest rates nor a change in policy nor forward guidance. Moody's Analytics looks at an entirely different measure to come to much the same...
This week the markets have been all about the on again/off again trade talks between the US and China and the latest updates from the Tweeter-in-Chief. The Volatility Index (VIX) is reaching a four-month high, which is seriously hurting all those who helped build up the record net short positi...
By Spencer England The real trade deficit (million 2012 $) increased from $81,558 in February to $82,054 in March. The March observation was between the January and February data points so it was not large enough to generate a significant change in imports 0.58 percentage point contributio...
Towards the end of long expansions (this one is the longest on record) things get tight. Factories operate flat-out and start raising prices. Good workers become harder to find and companies start competing for them with higher wages and other perks. This story is about the "other perks" w...
By Jill Mislinski This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index ((WLI)) at 146.9, up 0.5 from the previous week. Year over year, the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -1.61%, down from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is ...
By SchiffGold Consumer debt continues to climb and break records every month. But the pace of borrowing slowed in March, a possible red flag for the US economy. Total consumer debt rose $10.3 billion in March, hitting a record-setting total of $4.05 trillion, according to the latest rep...
In the recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey , the level of openings increased by 346,000, while job hires fell 35,000. Openings remain at a high level but began to decline starting in December last year. The fact that the hiring level is lagging the growth in openings is a sign compa...
By Robert Hughes Sales of light vehicles totaled 16.4 million at an annual rate in April, down from a 17.4 million pace in March (see chart). Despite the drop, the pace of sales remains within the 16-18 million unit range that we have seen for much of the past two decades. Unit vehicle sal...