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By Yogesh Modak Differences at the Heart of the Negotiations From optimism on a deal in April to new tariffs enforced in May, it seems much has changed in the U.S.-China trade dispute in a short time. It’s fair to ask, what went wrong? Were they as close as they intimated? I spent...
By Gary Alexander This Friday marks the beginning of summer, the "Longest Day" in the Northern Hemisphere. At the end of this month, we will record a positive GDP for the second quarter, marking this as the longest economic recovery in the 240-year history of the United States. And we alre...
If you read the June FOMC previews from major Wall Street banks, they are broadly similar. Everyone expects a less enthusiastic assessment of the economy, several individual dots to show expectations for cuts this year (even if the median dot remains unchanged) and, crucially, a change to the ...
"While it would be unfair to say that either the Fed or the market is clueless, no one is sure whether we are facing the definitive downswing in the current economic cycle, or another mini-pause." That's from a short Friday note by SocGen's Kit Juckes, who was weighing in on Paul Tudor J...
By Robert Hughes AIER's Leading Indicators index returned to neutral in May; outlook remains uncertain AIER's Leading Indicators index rose 12 points to a neutral reading of 50 in May, up from 38 in April. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index and the Lagging Indicators index both fell...
With equities pulling back in May, investor sentiment has held a bearish bias over the past few weeks. Last week's rally has reversed this build-up of bearish sentiment to a small degree, as the percentage of investors reporting as bulls in this week's AAII survey grew to 26.84% from 22.53...
There are many signs that astute investors look for to confirm that a bottom has been made after a market decline. One of the most important signs is the tell-tale increase in investor pessimism as measured by various sentiment polls. But an even more reliable indication that the market is pri...
Over the past couple of weeks, we have been discussing a " sellable rally " following the sell-off during the month of May. To wit : "This week we are going to look at the recent sell-off and the potential for a short-term 'sellable' rally to rebalance portfolio risks into. The markets o...